Are 9-13-year-olds falling behind in math at school? Experts are worried it's going to cost them later

No wonder, for most kids, math is the most difficult subject, but it is one of those subjects that has a major impact on the grades. Recently, a concerning report was revealed by the federal testing data from 2025 of the American education system: the report shows that the average math scores for 9- and 13-year-olds remain lower than they were a decade ago.

These findings were alarming for not just educators but also for economists who worry about the long-term impact on the U.S. workforce. Here’s more about this shocking report and how it will impact in the long run. Read on to find out…Beyond the PandemicThere’s no denying that earning disruptions during the pandemic certainly didn't help, data shows that math scores have actually been stagnant since 2012. This long-term flatline challenges the common assumption that low performance is strictly a recent issue.

“We can clearly see that this isn’t just a pandemic story,” said Matthew Soldner, acting director of the Institute of Education Sciences and acting commissioner of the National Center for Education Statistics, the agency behind the testing.

The data comes from the National Assessment of Educational Progress’s long-term trend test. This assessment has tracked the math and reading skills of 9- and 13-year-olds since the 1970s, grading students on a scale from 0 to 500, with most scoring between 150 and 300.

Tale of Two Age GroupsThe newest results offer a mixed bag. Nine-year-olds showed minor progress in math, and their reading scores successfully bounced back to pre-pandemic levels. For these younger students, the average reading score ticked up from 215 to 218. This improvement was consistent across various demographics, including boys, low-income children, and students with disabilities. In contrast, achievement for 13-year-olds has barely moved since the last test in 2023.

Experts view this stagnation as a sign of a developing crisis in middle school education.“The lack of progress among 13-year-olds raises huge questions and ought to serve as a catalyst for change,” said Lesley Muldoon, executive director of the National Assessment Governing Board. “As a nation, we have to bring more focus to the middle school years.”Even more concerning is how the lowest-performing 13-year-olds are faring.

Muldoon noted that their math scores are “statistically equivalent” to the lowest-scoring students from the early 1970s. “And that is really jarring,” Muldoon said.Read on: DoE asks schools to highlight optional mathsMassive Economic CostMany of the 13-year-olds tested last year are currently in high school or about to enter it. Economists warn that these students may face lower lifetime earnings than previous generations due to a gap in foundational skills.“People with more skills earn more,” said Eric Hanushek, a senior fellow at Stanford University’s Hoover Institution.

According to Hanushek, today’s graduates are on track to earn an average of 8 percent less over their lifetimes compared to the Class of 2013. He estimates that this collective loss could drain $90 trillion from the U.S. economy by the year 2100.As per a report published in the digital daily of The Washington Post, it was mentioned that “People don’t get very concerned about this, in part because it’s sort of like blood pressure.

It’s the silent killer you don’t notice until you notice it,” Hanushek said regarding the economic fallout. “What it comes out to is a huge number that we have to pay attention to because it affects our position in the world, frankly.” This economic anxiety is backed by other academic research.

A joint study by Harvard University and Dartmouth College estimated that 48 million public school students enrolled during the 2020-21 school year could lose a combined $900 billion in lifetime earnings because of pandemic-related learning gaps.Closing Off Career PathsIn the near term, a lack of math skills could lock students out of competitive career paths, according to Courtney Brown, vice president of impact and planning for the Lumina Foundation.“If students are struggling with basic, foundational math, it’s really going to narrow the range of credentials they can pursue,” Brown said. A recent Lumina and Gallup survey highlighted this mismatch, showing that over half of U.S.

employers are currently struggling to find qualified applicants. Brown emphasized that solid math skills are vital for growing sectors like healthcare, business, information technology, and advanced manufacturing. Read on: 15,000 UK students struggle with one A-Level Maths paperHow School Policies ShiftedThe recent test scores simply continue a downward trajectory for math that began in the mid-2010s. This decline followed a temporary era of academic growth between 2000 and 2012. During the 2000s, U.S.

education was shaped by intense standardized testing, strict teacher evaluations, and rigid federal accountability systems. Researchers note these policies actively drove math achievement forward.“By no means were these policies perfect or even sufficient,” said Brian Jacob, a professor of education policy and economics at the University of Michigan. However, he noted that “focused attention gave clear targets and provided some incentives,” while also bringing more funding to schools.

In the years since, federal policy has shifted, giving states more freedom to design their own accountability measures.

Consequently, schools have reallocated their energy toward issues like student mental health, chronic absenteeism, and managing digital devices. “It may be schools just need to focus on some of these other issues before they’re going to have the bandwidth to get back to kind of measuring student learning,” Jacob observed.Looking for a Way ForwardDespite the bleak data, some experts view the historical growth seen over a decade ago as a blueprint for recovery, proving that American students are entirely capable of turning things around. “I take from it that we have seen high performance is indeed possible and is something that we can achieve again in the future,” Soldner said.