Armenian PM Pashinyan Declares Victory: What His Election Win Would Mean For Russia And The West

Last Updated:June 08, 2026, 12:32 IST

Early results show Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan’s party ahead with over 54 per cent vote share, while the pro-Russian Strong Armenia alliance trails in second place.

Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan has declared victory in a parliamentary election that is being closely watched by both Russia and the West.

According to Reuters, early results released from about 21 per cent of polling stations showed Pashinyan’s Civil Contract party leading with 54.5 per cent of the vote. The pro-Russian Strong Armenia alliance was in second place with 21.9 per cent. The Armenia Alliance was third with 8.7 per cent, while the Prosperous Armenia party was trailing with around 5 per cent.

At a press conference early on Monday, Pashinyan said his party had won, calling it a “historic victory". However, the final outcome has not yet been certified. According to Reuters, Armenia’s Central Election Commission is expected to announce official preliminary results on Monday. Turnout was nearly 59 per cent in the country of around three million people.

The election matters because Armenia is not just choosing a government. It is also deciding the direction of its foreign policy at a time when the country is caught between its old security partner Russia and its growing engagement with the West.

Where Is Armenia?

Armenia is a small, landlocked country in the South Caucasus. It is bordered by Turkey, Iran and Azerbaijan. Its northern neighbour, Georgia, shares a border with Russia.

This geography makes Armenia important. It sits in a region where Russia, the West, Turkey, Iran and Azerbaijan all have interests.

For years, Armenia was seen as being firmly in Russia’s orbit. It was part of the Soviet Union and became independent in 1991. Even after independence, Armenia remained closely tied to Moscow for security, trade and energy.

Russia has a military base in Gyumri, Armenia’s second-largest city. Armenia also joined the Russia-led Eurasian Economic Union in 2015. This kept Armenia economically linked to Moscow and other Russia-aligned states.

But under Pashinyan, who came to power in 2018, Armenia has tried to build closer ties with the West while still maintaining links with Russia. That balancing act is now under pressure.

Why Has Armenia Moved Away From Russia?

The biggest reason is the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict.

Nagorno-Karabakh is a mountain region inside Azerbaijan that had a large ethnic Armenian population. For decades, Armenia and Azerbaijan fought over it.

In 2020, Armenia and Azerbaijan went to war. Armenia expected support from Russia and the Russia-led Collective Security Treaty Organisation, or CSTO. But Russia did not intervene, arguing that the CSTO applied only to Armenia’s internationally recognised territory and not Nagorno-Karabakh.

The relationship worsened after Azerbaijan later retook Nagorno-Karabakh. More than 100,000 ethnic Armenians were displaced from the region.

For many Armenians, this raised a serious question: if Russia did not protect Armenia during such a major crisis, how reliable was Moscow as a security partner?

After this, Armenia froze its participation in the CSTO in February 2024, boycotted alliance meetings and began buying weapons from India and France instead of depending only on Russia.

This is why the election is important. A strong result for Pashinyan would strengthen his push to reduce Armenia’s dependence on Russia, deepen ties with the West and continue peace talks with Azerbaijan.

Why Is Russia Worried?

Russia does not want Armenia to move too far towards the West.

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio recently said Russia was unhappy with American engagement in Armenia and wanted Pashinyan to lose.

Russia has also publicly criticised Armenia’s Western outreach. Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said the “Armenian authorities’ policy of rapprochement with the Euro-Atlantic community whose core policy is directed against Moscow" was a matter of deep concern.

This is why Moscow is watching the election closely. Armenia has long been one of Russia’s partners in the post-Soviet region. If Pashinyan wins strongly and continues his Western shift, it would show that Russia’s grip over one of its old allies is weakening.

Pashinyan’s main rival in the election is Samvel Karapetyan, who founded the Strong Armenia alliance last year. As per Reuters, Strong Armenia is pro-Russian. Karapetyan campaigned on a pro-business platform and promised to maintain Armenia’s close ties with Russia.

Why Can’t Armenia Simply Cut Ties With Russia?

Armenia may want more Western support, but it cannot easily walk away from Russia. The reason is dependence.

According to The Indian Express, around 82 per cent of Armenia’s gas came from Russia last year. Armenia also depends heavily on Russia for trade. It imports fuels and precious metals, while its exports in electronics and precious stones rely on access to markets through the Russia-led Eurasian Economic Union.

That gives Moscow leverage.

In the run-up to the election, Russia imposed temporary bans on Armenian exports and threatened to cut cheap energy supplies. The message was clear: if Armenia moves too close to the West, it could face economic pressure.

Other members of the Eurasian Economic Union — Belarus, Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan — have also increased pressure on Armenia. They have demanded that Armenia hold an urgent nationwide referendum to choose between staying in the Russia-led bloc and moving closer to the European Union. A formal review of Armenia’s membership status is due by December 2026.

Pashinyan has refused to rush such a referendum. He has called an immediate referendum “unreasonable" and said Armenia is not cutting its economic ties with Russia. He has described the relationship with Moscow as being in a “transformation phase".

In simple terms, Armenia wants more space to work with the West, but it is not in a position to completely break with Russia.

Why Is The West Interested In Armenia?

For the West, Armenia is important because it shows that Russia’s influence in its old neighbourhood may be weakening.

Pashinyan has spoken more openly about European integration. In May 2026, Armenia hosted the 8th European Political Community summit along with the first EU-Armenia bilateral summit. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy was also present and made remarks about Russia, which Moscow called “categorically unacceptable".

A Pashinyan victory would likely strengthen Armenia’s engagement with the West.

What Happens Next?

For now, Pashinyan has claimed victory, but the final result has not yet been certified. The official preliminary results are expected from Armenia’s Central Election Commission on Monday.

About the Author

Karishma Jain

Karishma Jain, Chief Sub Editor at News18.com, writes and edits opinion pieces on a variety of subjects, including Indian politics and policy, culture and the arts, technology and social change. Follo...Read More

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