‘Be patient, you’re very close’: Why Carlie Irsay-Gordon now has to decide if Shane Steichen stays or goes

The Indianapolis Colts are officially out of the playoffs, and the fallout has already begun. After starting the season 8-2, Indianapolis became the first team since 1995 to miss the postseason following such a start.

That collapse has put head coach Shane Steichen under real pressure as the franchise enters its first offseason under principal owner Carlie Irsay-Gordon.Steichen has now missed the playoffs in three straight seasons. Injuries explain part of the story, but not all of it. With the Colts eliminated and no job-security talks happening yet, Irsay-Gordon is facing her first defining football decision. Keep the coach and trust the process, or decide that close is no longer good enough.

Bruce Arians says stay the course, even after a third straight playoff miss

Former Colts offensive coordinator and interim head coach Bruce Arians does not believe Indianapolis should make a coaching change. Appearing on the Dec. 31 episode of “The Pat McAfee Show,” Arians urged patience from ownership.“I hope the Colts don’t make a change, because I think they’re close…be patient, you’re very, very close. Don’t let one or two injuries run you out of the whole damn thing,” Arians said.The argument starts with how the season opened. Indianapolis entered its bye week at 8-2 and looked like a legitimate AFC contender.

ESPN’s Football Power Index once gave the Colts a 93.9% chance to make the playoffs and a 79.4% chance to win the AFC South. At that point, the franchise acted like a team chasing a Super Bowl, trading two first-round picks and a second-round receiver to acquire Sauce Gardner from the New York Jets.

Then everything unraveled. Quarterback Daniel Jones suffered a ruptured Achilles in Week 14 against the Jacksonville Jaguars.

Anthony Richardson Sr. was already on injured reserve with an eye injury. The Colts turned to a retired Philip Rivers, who lost all three of his starts. DeForest Buckner reinjured his neck. Gardner went down with a calf injury. Charvarius Ward suffered another concussion that ended his season.The Colts lost six straight games. Their season ended without a playoff berth for the fifth consecutive year.Steichen acknowledged the pattern after a Week 17 loss to the San Francisco 49ers.“It’s something I’ve got to look at,” he said. “We’ve got to find ways to win, especially in November and December. That’s where you win games and that’s where you make the playoffs.”

Carlie Irsay-Gordon has not discussed job security yet, but history is working against Steichen

Steichen confirmed in Week 18 that he has not spoken with Irsay-Gordon about his future.“I have not had those conversations with Carlie,” Steichen said. “But I do meet with Carlie every week. We do a game debrief, go through the process of every game.”That working relationship is close. Irsay-Gordon is regularly present at practices, position meetings, and game debriefs. She meets weekly with Steichen and general manager Chris Ballard and was directly involved in major decisions, including the Gardner trade. She has also made it clear in the past that injuries matter when evaluating a season.“Do you have a crystal ball?” Irsay-Gordon said earlier this year.

“Of course, things happen and some of it is we all have to look at all these factors.”Still, the results are hard to ignore. Steichen is now 25-25 across three seasons. Indianapolis has entered must-win games late in each of those seasons and failed every time. The Colts also hold a piece of unwanted history as the first team in 30 years to start 8-2 and miss the playoffs.This offseason is different. It is Irsay-Gordon’s first as principal owner following the death of her father, Jim Irsay, in May. Along with her sisters, she must decide whether to stay patient with a coach who has shown offensive upside but no postseason results, and a general manager who has one playoff win in nine seasons.The Colts are expected to consider re-signing Jones despite his injury. That plan, according to team sources, signals continuity. But continuity only works if the late-season failures stop.