BJD faces historic defeat in Nuapada byelection, revealing deepening crisis and voter discontent

Bhubaneswar: BJD’s crushing defeat in the Nuapada byelection, slipping to third place with just 18% vote share — its lowest ever in the assembly constituency — indicates the party’s continuing downfall and deepening crisis following its electoral debacle in 2024.Despite deploying its full organisational strength and mounting high-octane campaigning led by former chief minister Naveen Patnaik, BJD’s attempt to reinvent itself faltered, exposing widening cracks in its political grip over the state.“BJD has lived through many highs and lows, yet our resolve to fight for the people has remained unbreakable, and it will continue to remain so,” Naveen wrote in an X post after the results were announced.Since parting ways with BJP in 2009, BJD has fought elections alone in Odisha. Yet, never before did it face such humiliation in Nuapada. Party nominee Snehangini Chhuria, branded by rivals as an “outsider”, polled only 38,408 votes (18.07%) — just above the 16.6% threshold required to save her security deposit.Erosion of BJD’s vote share in Nuapada has been steady: from 39.75% in 2019 to 33.65% in 2024, when the party still managed to win.

This time, however, the collapse was complete.BJD was once a dominant force in Nuapada, from where its candidate Rajendra Dholakia won in 2009, 2019 and 2024. BJP won the seat twice previously — once in 2000 when it was an ally of BJD, and in 2014 when it went alone.After Dholakia’s death in Sept that necessitated the bypoll, his son Jay defected to the BJP and contested as its candidate, delivering a severe blow to BJD. Naveen attempted a counter-offensive, branding the BJP “beiman” (betrayer) and a “candidate thief”, but the rhetoric failed to sway voters.Though Naveen refrained from citing any factors that led to BJD’s defeat, party’s senior vice-president Debi Prasad Mishra said that BJP allegedly adopted unfair means during the 48-hour silence period and manipulated votes to secure victory. Naveen thanked the Nuapada voters and appreciated his party workers.Analysts point to deeper structural issues like the BJD’s inability to protect its traditional vote bank that fell into BJP’s kitty after Jay’s induction, failure to attract new voters, and growing internal discord.“The Nov 11 byelection witnessed a record 83.45% turnout, significantly higher than the 75.44% polling in 2024, yet the surge in participation did not benefit the BJD. It also indicated that the voters were with the Dholakia family, not with BJD,” political analyst Rabi Das observed.“There was speculation that Naveen might stage a comeback on the strength of his personal popularity, especially after his aide V K Pandian exited politics post-2024 fiasco. But the Nuapada verdict signals a further downfall for the BJD. The party is grappling with infighting and a steady exodus of leaders to BJP. This poor performance will inevitably echo in the upcoming urban and panchayat elections,” Das said.