El Nino Is Brewing Again: Should India Brace For A Deficient Monsoon In 2026?

Last Updated:March 13, 2026, 17:35 IST

What is worrying meteorologists is not just the possibility of El Nino itself, but how strong it could become.

Scientists are increasingly seeing early signals that El Nino conditions could develop in 2026, and possibly strengthen as the year progresses. According to recent reports, climate models suggest that the current La Nina phase in the Pacific Ocean is weakening, with ocean–atmosphere patterns shifting towards neutral conditions before potentially flipping to El Nino by mid-year. Forecasts from global weather agencies indicate roughly a 60 per cent chance of El Nino emerging between June and August, with the probability rising further toward the latter half of the year.

What is worrying meteorologists is not just the possibility of El Nino itself, but how strong it could become. India is already seeing an intense summer. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) and international climate centres are closely monitoring the Pacific because some model projections indicate the event could intensify later in the season. If that happens, it could begin affecting global weather patterns — including India’s monsoon — particularly during the second half of the rainy season around August and September.

El Nino occurs when surface waters in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean warm unusually, altering wind patterns and shifting rainfall across the tropics. In many past instances, such warming has reduced the flow of moisture towards the Indian subcontinent, which can weaken or disrupt the monsoon. Scientists stress that forecasts this early in the year still carry uncertainty, but the growing consensus among global climate agencies is that the Pacific is moving toward conditions favourable for an El Niño event later in 2026, which is why weather agencies are already watching the situation closely.

What Is El Nino?

El Nino is a natural climate phenomenon that occurs when surface waters in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean become unusually warm, disrupting normal wind and weather patterns across the tropics. This warming weakens the trade winds that typically push warm water toward the western Pacific, causing a shift in atmospheric circulation known as the El Nino–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). As a result, rainfall patterns and temperatures change in many parts of the world.

Some regions experience heavier rains and flooding, while others face drought and heatwaves. Because the Pacific Ocean influences global climate systems, the effects of El Nino can be felt far beyond the ocean itself, including in countries like India where it can sometimes weaken the monsoon.

Why El Nino matters for India’s monsoon

For India, the biggest concern is how a potential El Nino might affect the southwest monsoon, which brings nearly 70 per cent of the country’s annual rainfall. The monsoon is critical not just for agriculture but also for water reservoirs, rural livelihoods and the broader economy.

Historically, several deficient monsoon years have coincided with El Nino events. When El Nino develops, warming in the Pacific alters atmospheric circulation patterns. This shift can weaken the moisture-carrying winds that travel toward the Indian subcontinent, reducing rainfall and sometimes leading to below-normal monsoon seasons.

Does El Nino Lead To A Drought?

Despite this link, scientists caution that El Niño does not automatically translate into a weak monsoon for India. The relationship between the two is complex and has evolved over time.

In several recent years, India has still received near-normal rainfall even during El Nino conditions, because other climate systems helped offset its influence. This means that while El Nino raises the risk of rainfall deficiency, it does not guarantee it.

How Indian Ocean can change the outcome

One key factor that can influence the monsoon is what happens in the Indian Ocean.

Weather patterns such as the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) — which refers to temperature differences between the western and eastern parts of the ocean — can sometimes strengthen the monsoon circulation. If favourable conditions develop in the Indian Ocean, they may partly counterbalance the suppressing effect that El Nino tends to have on rainfall over India.

Why scientists remain cautious right now

Another reason meteorologists are cautious about early projections is what is known as the “spring prediction barrier."

During the northern hemisphere spring, climate models often struggle to accurately forecast how the El Nino–Southern Oscillation will evolve. As a result, early signals may change in strength or timing over the coming months. This is why scientists typically wait until late spring or early summer for more reliable forecasts.

When the monsoon could feel the impact

At the moment, weather agencies believe that the early phase of the monsoon may not see a major impact, even if El Nino begins to develop around mid-year.

However, if warming in the Pacific intensifies significantly, it could begin influencing rainfall patterns during the second half of the monsoon season, particularly in August and September. These months are crucial for replenishing water reservoirs and supporting major crops such as rice, pulses and oilseeds.

Should India brace for a deficient monsoon?

For now, scientists describe the emerging signals as an early warning rather than a definitive forecast.

There are growing indications that El Nino could return this year, but it is too early to conclude that India will face a deficient monsoon. Much will depend on how the Pacific warming evolves and how other regional climate systems interact with it. A clearer assessment of the monsoon outlook is likely to emerge closer to the start of the rainy season, when meteorologists have more reliable data.

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