Five perceptions dominate the Bihar Assembly election campaign this time

The verdict in the two-phase Bihar Assembly election will be pronounced in a little over a fortnight, on November 14, but the campaign’s momentum on the ground has given way to Chhath festivities, which fell this year on October 27-28. Moreover, a paradigm shift in the format of the election campaign has seen it move from the ground to social media. And from the heat and dust of intense campaigning have risen a handful of dominant themes in voter conversations.

Firstly, Chief Minister Nitish Kumar still appears more popular than other political leaders in the arena but his failing health is a talking point, especially among male voters. The ruling National Democratic Alliance’s (NDA) ‘Dus Hazaria’ scheme, a reference to the ₹10,000 transferred to ‘Jeevika Didis’ (community mobilisers for self-help groups in a World Bank-supported initiative) under the ‘Mukhyamantri Mahila Rozgar Yojana’(CM women’s employment scheme) through Direct Benefit Transfer to the beneficiaries’ bank accounts, has gained huge traction and accolades.

Mr. Kumar has been, for a long time, assiduously carving a caste-neutral women’s vote bank, with several welfare schemes crafted especially for women under his baton. Women voters (at 48%) are almost equal in number to male voters in Bihar. They can be heard speaking of the ‘Dus Hazaria’ scheme everywhere, proclaiming their support for Mr. Kumar.

“We will all vote for Nitish Kumar,” a group of women voters from an Extremely Backward Class (EBC) told this reporter, sitting by the roadside under the shadow of a neem (margosa)tree at noon on October 22 in Samastipur. They were busy weaving sup-daura (handcrafted bamboo baskets) used in the Chhath festival to carry fruits and other offerings to the rising and setting Sun.

Men of the same group, sitting nearby and also weaving baskets, beads of sweat crowding their brow, sounded more cautious. “We have heard he (Nitish Kumar) is not well these days. He should give up his position before things turn fatal,” they said.

The ruling NDA has fielded 34 women candidates, while the Opposition Mahagathbandhan (grand alliance) has 31 women candidates in the fray this year.

Tejashwi’s burden

Secondly, voter conversations centre around Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) leader Tejashwi Yadav burdened by the inherited tag of “lawlessness in Bihar” of his parents’ regimes from 1990 to November 2005.  The younger son of RJD supremo Lalu Prasad is a former Leader of the Opposition in Bihar Assembly, and was Deputy Chief Minister twice in Mahagathbandhan (grand alliance) governments. NDA leaders have targeted him over the years of “misrule and migovernance” under the RJD, a focus Mr. Yadav has struggled to shrug off.

Mr. Lalu Prasad has declared his younger son to be his political heir, and Mr. Yadav has announced several welfare schemes for women but voters frequently recall the “jungle raj” that became a byword for the RJD era in Bihar’s governnance. “It’s okay that he (Mr. Yadav) too has announced something for us, but who can forget the total absence of law in the RJD regime,” voters in urban Darbhanga told this reporter.

At 36, Mr. Yadav is popular among younger voters. “He is young, and has proved he means what he says in the 17 months during which he was a Mahagathbandhan Deputy CM,” students returning from a coaching institute in Darbhanga town as the prepared to write examinations for ‘government jobs’, said. Mr. Yadav has promised one ‘government job’ per family if he comes to power. “Did Modi ji provide ₹15 lakh to everyone in the country as he had promised?” they said, when asked about Mr. Yadav’s campaign promise.

PM’s popularity

Thirdly, Prime Minister Narendra Modi is still the most popular leader across age groups in both urban and rural constituencies of the State, irrespective of their caste affiliations. Voters speak of Mr. Modi as a “strong leader who is tough, and at the same time takes care of every section of society”. “We need a leader like him,” Ramesh Kushwaha of Vaishali district said, looking to others sitting with him for confirmation as they nodded.

Mr. Modi has campaigned extensively in Bihar. On October 30, he is scheduled to address two public meetings at Muzaffarpur and Chhapra, and will hold a roadshow in Patna on November 2. “He is more appealing for us than any other leader either in Bihar or the country,” Sanjay Bind, pedalling his cycle swiftly on the Mahua-Samastipur road in Vaishali district, said.

Congress is back

Fourthly, the Congress party, which was pushed into something approaching a political coma in the State when Mr. Prasad led the RJD to power in 1990, has finally found its stride with the success of Rahul Gandhi’s 14-day, 1,300-km-long Voter Adhikar Yatra across 24 districts. Congress leaders and supporters have received a fresh lease of life, and the party Bihar headquarters Sadaqat Ashram is seen buzzing with activity after a long time.

Enthused party leaders have even pressured the RJD to let the Congress contest more seats. Several party leaders suggested that had Mr. Gandhi stayed for more days in Bihar, or camped here, the contest in Bihar this time would have been between “the BJP-led NDA and the Congress-led Mahagathbandhan” , with the party reclaiming lost ground.

‘Over-hyped’ JSP

Fifthly, the lack of traction for the newly launched Jan Suraaj Party, founded by former poll strategist Prashant Kishor on October 2, 2024 in Patna, has become evident. The JSP is contesting all 243 seats, with three candidates withdrawing their nominations. But despite the hype on social media, and in some sections of conventional media, there is little evidence of interest in the party on the ground.

“It (the JSP) is doing well only on social media. It is over-hyped publicity of the kind Mr. Kishor was doing for other political parties as an expert on elections, nothing else,” Rajesh Kumar, 55, an engineer-turned-stock broker from the Kumhrar constituency in central Patna, said. “Candidates with a good personality and career are not guaranteed to win elections in Bihar. Do you think the Congress party candidate from Patna Sahib, Shashant Shekhar, is in anyway less educated than any of the JSP’s candidates, but will he win the poll? It’s a million dollar question,” Mr. Kumar added.

Several smaller parties have had a little impact in some constituencies on the ground. The All India Majlis-e- Ittehadul Muslimeen (AIMIM) has caught the attention of voters in some constituencies of the Seemanchal (border) districts of northeast Bihar, where its presence may be impactful in the results. It’s also worth noting that Muslim voters (17.70%) appear to remain glued to the Mahagathbandhan.