Gold price prediction: What's the gold rate outlook for September 22, 2025 week - why Rs 1,08,500 is a crucial level

Gold price prediction today: Gold prices are expected to maintain their bullish trend, and a buy on dips strategy may work well for investors, says Manav Modi, Senior Analyst, Commodity Research at Motilal Oswal Financial services Ltd. Here is his outlook for gold prices in the coming days:Gold started last week with some profit booking after scaling record highs but losses were limited amid weak US jobs data, rupee depreciation and expectations of a rate cut from the Federal Reserve. Market sentiment was influenced by higher-than-expected inflation data, softer labor market numbers, and a sharp drop in non-farm payrolls, leading participants to price in at least a 25 bps cut, with some even anticipating a 50 bps move.The Fed meeting came against a complex backdrop of political tussles, including legal challenges around its leadership and President Trump’s push for a deeper rate cut, highlighting risks to the central bank’s independence. On the geopolitical front, Middle East tensions, NATO’s presence in Eastern Europe, and Israel’s military escalation in Gaza added a risk premium, further supporting safe-haven demand.

While US retail sales and industrial production surprised on the upside, concerns linger over slowing labor markets, tariff-driven price pressures, and global trade uncertainty. Fed eventually delivered a 25 bps rate cut, labelling it a “risk-management cut,” while also raising GDP forecasts and keeping inflation risks in focus. Although US yields and the dollar initially slipped, both rebounded after Powell’s cautious tone, which signaled further cuts in 2025 but caution beyond.

Gold briefly retreated nearly 1% post-policy but continues to hover close to historic peaks as investors weigh Fed guidance and geopolitical risks.Even after the much awaited Fed meeting, market participants are awaiting some clarity as Fed Chair’s comments and forecasts have kept the market on edge. Along with the monetary policy path, Geo-political development and President Trump’s attempt for MAGA is also creating uncertainties and supporting bullion. The recent announcement from the Trump administration to increase fees of H-1B visas could also increase unrest and create an issue for immigrants. This week a slew of Fed officials are expected to make an appearance including Governor Powell which could give us more clarity on last week’s decision. Focus now also shifts to Preliminary PMI data from major economies, US GDP, inflation and durable goods orders data.Profit booking could be witnessed as we hover near all-time highs, however buy on dips can be maintained for Gold this week.Till prices are above Rs 1,08,500, any dip could be used as an buying opportunity for new all times, targeting Rs 1,11,000 - Rs 1,12,000.(Disclaimer: Recommendations and views on the stock market and other asset classes given by experts are their own. These opinions do not represent the views of The Times of India)