Gold rate outlook 2026: Yellow metal might touch Rs 1.45 lakh! Here's what will drive the rally

India’s gold market is gearing up for a strong finish to 2025, as rising global rates, a weakening rupee and seasonal demand combine to push prices higher. Analysts expect domestic gold prices to remain steady for the rest of the year, with the possibility of further gains in early 2026.A recent update by ICICI Bank Global Markets projects the rupee to trade in the 87.00–89.00 range against the US dollar through the fourth quarter of 2025 and the first half of 2026. This currency movement, coupled with a bullish global outlook, is expected to keep domestic gold prices in the Rs 1,20,000–Rs 1,35,000 per 10 gram band during the remaining months of 2025. Prices could climb further to Rs 1,30,000–Rs 1,45,000 in the first half of next year.The bank has cautioned that the risks are tilted upwards, especially if the rupee falls further or global prices outpace forecasts. Currently, gold is trading at around Rs 1.31 lakh per 10 grams on the MCX.Higher levels? Industry watchers are preparing for even steeper increases.Anantha Padmanaban, founder member and former chairman of the All India Gem & Jewellery Domestic Council (GJC), told ANI that gold prices could touch a record Rs 1.50 lakh per 10 grams in the coming months, driven by strong global and domestic momentum, boosted by central bank buying and robust demand, especially from China and Japan.

The rally has been fuelled not just by currency and price dynamics but also by investor behaviour. Gold-backed ETFs have seen renewed interest, with SPDR holdings rising from 975 tonnes on September 13 2025 to 1,015 tonnes a month later. Speculative net long positions, meanwhile, slipped by about 8,000 over the same period.Domestic prices have surged 16% in the last month alone, tracking global trends and the rupee’s slide.

Imports have also jumped, from $5.44 billion in August to $9.6 billion in September, signalling resilient demand.“With the onset of the festive season, gold demand in India is expected to pick up, which should keep the imports high. Although traditionally, Indian households prefer physical gold in the form of jewellery, coins, and bars, the ongoing rally has seen urban investors increasingly favour ETFs. The World Gold Council reported that India's physically backed gold ETFs recorded the biggest-ever monthly inflow in September,” the ICICI Bank report said.The shift comes as investors seek safety amid soft equity market performance and persistent geopolitical uncertainty. “The ETF demand-related demand for gold is expected to remain fairly solid,” the report added.(Disclaimer: Recommendations and views on the stock market and other asset classes given by experts are their own. These opinions do not represent the views of The Times of India)