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2 min readBengaluruMar 4, 2026 03:40 AM IST
Presently, La Niña, the cool-ENSO phase is waning and setting-in of the ENSO neutral conditions are imminent.
The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) on Tuesday said that there is a high possibility for the development of El Niño during the later half of 2026.
El Niño is the warm phase of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) — a global ocean-atmosphere phenomenon prevailing along the equatorial Pacific Ocean which interferes with the global weather. Presently, La Niña, the cool-ENSO phase is waning and setting-in of the ENSO neutral conditions are imminent.
The WMO said, “The recent weak La Niña event is expected to fade into ENSO-neutral conditions which may swing to a warming El Niño episode later this year.”
The latest sea surface temperature forecasts suggested that during the March to May period, the global signal is for above-average land-surface temperatures.
Multiple weather models, including that of the India Meteorological Department (IMD), have favoured the development of El Niño after July.
If realised, the warming sea surface temperatures of the equatorial Pacific Ocean will coincide with the peak southwest monsoon over India.
The southwest monsoon season lasts from June-September and the country receives over 70% of its annual rainfall (about 880mm) during these four months.
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Of this, July and August record the highest rainfall or over 50% of the seasonal rainfall. While El Niño remains one the many factors that regulate weather, most El Niño years in the past have ended with subdued monsoon rainfall.
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