Hiring outlook dips: Net employment for Q4 down 7 points from last quarter; still retains second-strongest global outlook

Indian employers are set to ease hiring in the October–December quarter even as recruitment sentiment shows marked improvement from a year ago, according to the latest ManpowerGroup Employment Outlook Survey. The net employment outlook, quoted by Economic Times, for Q4 stands at 40 per cent, down seven points from the current quarter but 18 points higher year-on-year. Of the 3,149 employers surveyed, 55 per cent plan to hire, 12 per cent expect to cut jobs or not backfill roles, 31 per cent foresee no change, and 2 per cent remain uncertain. Despite the moderation, India retains the second-strongest hiring outlook globally, 17 points above the global average.

Expansion plans (43 per cent), demand for specialised tech skills (36 per cent), and new business ventures (35 per cent) are driving recruitment. Sector-wise, energy and utilities leads with a 59 per cent outlook, an 18-point quarterly and 74-point annual increase, placing India 39 points above the global average in the sector. Financial services and real estate (52 per cent), IT (48 per cent), and healthcare, life sciences, transport, logistics and automotive (44 per cent each) also report robust hiring intentions.

Economists attributed the year-on-year improvement to higher exports to the US ahead of tariff deadlines and better rural consumption. “Clarity on US trade relations and GST rationalisation could further aid export-linked and domestic demand sectors,” said Sachchidanand Shukla, group chief economist at Larsen & Toubro. Challenges persist, with 46 per cent of employers citing talent shortages. Work–life balance (42 per cent) is the most common retention strategy, while automation accounts for 38 per cent of staff reductions. “The growing trend is workforce flexibility, as firms mix permanent, temporary and consultant talent to stay agile amid wage pressures, tech shifts and changing employee expectations,” said Sandeep Gulati, managing director, ManpowerGroup India and Middle East.