How do military standoffs affect aviation? | Explained

The story so far: After the Pahalgam terror attack on April 22, India initiated a series of measures against Pakistan that included the suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty. In response to India’s calibrated steps, Pakistan issued a NOTAM (notice to airmen), closing its airspace to Indian aircraft from April 24 to May 23 — multiple air traffic routes were unavailable across the north and south as well as a part of the Arabian Sea. India responded with a similar NOTAM on April 30, that was effective till May 23.

Also Read | India extends airspace ban for Pakistan airlines till June 23

What happened after the hostilities?

After India’s tri-service Operation Sindoor (May 7-10), Pakistan opened its airspace resulting in some foreign airlines resuming overflights. However, both countries have again issued fresh notices, closing their airspace to Indian (“till June 24, 4.59 a.m., Pakistan Airports Authority”) and Pakistan aircraft (June 23), respectively.

Is there a history of airspace closure?

Prof. Mohammad Owais Farooqui, Assistant Professor of Aerospace Law, Department of Public Law, College of Law, University of Sharjah, has told The Hindu that in the 1950s, India had objected to Pakistan’s declaration of a “prohibited zone” along its frontier as discriminatory as it allowed overflights by other nations. The dispute was resolved diplomatically but set a precedent that such restrictions must have bona fide security justifications.

The Hindu’s archives show that airspace closure has been a major issue corresponding with the state of bilateral ties. Following the 1965 India-Pakistan war, a report, “Overflights from Feb. 10: Indo-Pak. Accord: Air Services to be Resumed From March 1” (The Hindu, February 8, 1966), highlighted “an in principle agreement to allow overflights and a resumption of normal Pakistani and Indian services from March 1”. Pakistan also wanted a direct link to Dacca (Dhaka), which was cut off in the war in September. The report said that “to reach East Pakistan from the west wing, Pakistan aircraft at present have to fly by Ceylon, a detour of more than 2,000 miles and that international flights have been forced to operate from Karachi to Bombay — across the Arabian Sea (connections to New Delhi are picked up from Bombay)”.

In 1971, there was another ban following the hijacking of an Indian Airlines Fokker F-27 flight (Srinagar-Jammu) on January 30 to Pakistan. The passengers were released in Lahore and the plane was destroyed (burnt). A report, “Pak. Civil Overflights Also Banned” (February 4, 1971), detailed India’s banning of civilian overflights as well as continuing an existing ban on military aircraft until “Pakistan had satisfactorily settled the question of compensation for the Indian aircraft”. The report said that flights in both countries were affected (Pakistan “much more than India”). This incident also saw India filing a case in the World Court after Pakistan lodged a complaint with the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) and the United Nations Security Council against the overflight ban. The World Court ruled (14-2 vote) that ICAO had jurisdiction over the issue. The issue was resolved in June 1976, with India and Pakistan signing a memorandum of understanding on resumption of overflights and flights.

Since then, there have been other closures and normalisations, with major events being the Kargil war (1999), the Indian Parliament attack (2001) and the Balakot airstrikes (2019).

Also Read | Brace for longer flights to the Gulf, Europe and the U.S. as Pakistan shuts its airspace

Is there an estimate of the losses?

In 2002, India’s Ministry of Civil Aviation was to seek budgetary support for Indian airlines after estimates of losses (Air India ₹40 crore a year; Indian Airlines ₹3.4 crore and the Airports Authority of India ₹5 crore from landing and parking charges and also overflights). Pakistan’s losses were estimated to be five times more, according to the Minister of Civil Aviation.

In 2019, the collective losses of Indian carriers were put at ₹548.93 crore (Rajya Sabha reply). A PTI report said Pakistan had suffered a $50 million loss. According to IATA, before the ban, at least 220 flights used Pakistan’s airspace to operate between Asia and Europe.

In 2025, the consolidated loss for the Indian aviation sector (including cargo) may be around ₹7,000 crore (indicative figure), according to reports that cite industry sources. Data reports based on the 2019 closure show that Pakistan lost approximately $2,32,000 every day in overflight charges and $3,00,000, if landing, parking and navigation fees were added.

What were the airspace changes in 2025?

There was a temporary closure of 32 airports across northern and western India. There was also a temporary closure of 25 segments of Air Traffic Service (ATS) routes within the Delhi and Mumbai Flight Information Regions (FIRs), “unavailable from ground level to unlimited altitude” for aviation safety. Overflights were “funnelled” along certain air routes, with Mumbai, Ahmedabad, Nagpur, Kolkata and Chennai air traffic control managing the traffic. In 2019, as many as 500 flights were rerouted overnight. On May 7, during Operation Sindoor, there were close to 500 aircraft (20% were Indian aircraft) movements from Indian airspace to Pakistan, aviation sources have told The Hindu. Some of the air routes used included N571, P574, L301, L505 and L639, in turn linked to flight management with the Muscat FIR. There was also a 30% increase in aircraft movement per hour, with peak hour traffic put at 40 aircraft. In air navigation terms, India and Pakistan share close to 12 waypoints, through which the Mumbai and Delhi FIRs feed air traffic, while there are six waypoints between the Mumbai and Muscat FIRs. The sources said that the traffic load from the 12 waypoints was shifted to these six waypoints. Established air traffic management procedures were used such as minimum aircraft separation standards (vertical, crossing and lateral for east and west-bound traffic).

Flightradar24’s director of communications has told The Hindu that there are few alternative routes via China due to the regimented nature of Chinese airspace and the presence of high mountains which can impact safe flight operations. Any routing that is less than optimal would add time and cost, he said.

Will international aviation law hold?

Prof. Farooqui says that while international aviation law provides mechanisms for redress, their effectiveness depends on political will and an understanding of the nuanced facts of this bilateral standoff.

Published - June 01, 2025 03:00 am IST