IMD forecasts heavy rains to persist over eastern India; rain and snow in the north from November 3

As India moves deeper into the post-monsoon transition, the first week of November is expected to bring a mix of widespread rain, thunderstorms, and early winter signals. According to the latest bulletin of India Meteorological Department (IMD), rainfall will continue across the eastern, central, and western regions in the initial days of November before gradually subsiding by mid-week.

A fresh western disturbance is set to influence northwest India from the night of November 3, potentially ushering in light to moderate rain and snowfall over the northern hills.The IMD bulletin, issued on October 31, highlights that while the current spell of rainfall is expected to ease after November 4, the coming week will mark a significant weather shift, from monsoon remnants in the south and east to pre-winter systems in the north.

Rain to continue across east and central India

On November 1, several regions are expected to receive heavy rain, including the Andaman and Nicobar Islands, Arunachal Pradesh, Assam, Meghalaya, Bihar, Gujarat, sub-Himalayan West Bengal, Sikkim, and parts of Madhya Pradesh.Thunderstorms accompanied by lightning and gusty winds (30–40 kmph) are also likely over Bihar, Gangetic West Bengal, Odisha, Gujarat, and the Andaman and Nicobar Islands. According to the IMD, parts of Madhya Pradesh and the northeast will likely experience lightning strikes, with isolated storm cells expected to develop.

Mariners off the coast of Gujarat and Konkan coasts have been advised to exercise caution, as these areas are likely to experience squally weather with wind speeds of 35–45 kmph gusting to 55 kmph. The department has urged fishermen not to venture into these regions due to rough sea conditions.

Thunderstorms to persist over western and coastal regions

The IMD forecasts that November 2 will bring continued thunderstorm activity, with gusty winds expected over Andaman and Nicobar Islands, and Gujarat, along with isolated lightning over parts of Madhya Pradesh.By November 3, thunderstorms are likely over the Andaman Islands and western Madhya Pradesh. This marks the start of a shift in the weather pattern, where the country’s northern and eastern ends experience contrasting conditions, continued moisture in the east and early winter conditions in the north.On November 4, thunderstorms with lightning and gusty winds (30–40 kmph) are likely over Andaman and Nicobar Islands, and western Madhya Pradesh to get isolated thunder and lightning.

Western disturbance to bring rain and snow to northern India

A fresh western disturbance, a key winter weather system, is expected to influence northwest India beginning November 3 night. The IMD predicts light to moderate rainfall and snowfall over the western Himalayan region between November 3 and 5, affecting states like Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand.The plains of Punjab, Haryana, Delhi, and western Uttar Pradesh are expected to see cloudy skies, drizzle, and a fall in maximum temperatures.

This will likely mark the onset of the pre-winter phase for northern India, bringing temporary relief from pollution-laden skies and mild warmth.

Cooler days and warmer nights ahead

According to IMD’s long-range forecast, normal to above-normal rainfall is expected across most of India during November. However, Tamil Nadu, Uttarakhand, Himachal Pradesh, and parts of Arunachal Pradesh are likely to receive below-normal rainfall during the month.The ongoing rainfall and widespread cloud cover will result in cooler days across most regions. However, because of increased clouding and humidity, night temperatures are expected to remain above normal, keeping the nights relatively warmer than typical November conditions.

Northeast monsoon will keeps South India moist

Meanwhile, the northeast monsoon, the key rainy season for Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, Kerala, coastal Andhra Pradesh, and parts of south interior Karnataka, remains active, bringing scattered to moderate rainfall across the southern peninsula.

The IMD expects normal rainfall during this season, which extends from October to December. So far, post Cyclone Montha, the rainfall distribution across southern India has remained within normal ranges, with intermittent showers over coastal Tamil Nadu and Kerala.

Weather conditions beyond November 5

The IMD indicates that after November 5, the intensity of rainfall is expected to decrease, and no significant weather warnings have been issued for most parts of the country.

Stable weather conditions are likely to prevail across much of India, except for light rain or snowfall in the northern hills.As the season progresses, fog formation and cooler winds are expected to increase over north India, especially in the Indo-Gangetic plains. States like Punjab, Haryana, Uttar Pradesh, and Bihar could begin to experience shallow fog during the early mornings.