India moves closer to mega Rafale deal, but will it solve the IAF's fighter shortage?

The Ministry of Defence has issued a Letter of Request (LoR) to France for the procurement of 114 Rafale fighters for the Indian Air Force (IAF). The new Rafale deal, expected to cost Rs 3.25 lakh crore, will be a government-to-government deal between India and France.

If the previous deal for 36 Rafale aircraft is to be used as a yard stick then the Indian Air Force is not likely yo get its first Rafale aircraft for at least four years after signing the deal, but since then Dassault's order book for the Rafale has increased significantly, with over 150 aircraft on the order book.

As per reports the deal for the fighters is expected to be signed early next year. Of these 114 fighters, 18 are expected to be procured from France in fly away condition and the remaining 96 aircraft are to be produced in India.

The first of these 18 aircraft is not expected to reach India before 2032 as per a report.This comes at a time when the Indian Air Force is sitting at a historic low when it comes to maintaining squadron strength, which stands at 29, against an authorised strength of 42.5 squadrons.

Even if six squadrons of Rafales are added, the number will move up to 35 squadrons, but the IAF is planning to retire the first of the Jaguar squadrons around 2030. With the retirement of the MiG-29 and the Mirage-2000 is expected to be carried out by the mid-2030s.

The IAF is expected to lose in number the strength of these 12 squadrons. Although the HAL has yet to deliver any of the Tejas Mk-1A fighters contracted for and the delivery delay caused by integration issues, as well as engine delivery delays.

Another HAL program that is also facing delays is the Tejas Mk2 program, this aircraft was to have its first flight in 2025, but is yet to be rolled out, thus delaying the program.Rafales are potent 4.5-generation multirole fighters, but they cannot alone offset the numerical shortfall, especially in a two-front war scenario where Pakistan fields upgraded J-10s and JF-17s equipped with advanced AESA radars and China deploys advanced J-16s and the fifth generation J-20s.Technologically, Rafales bring advanced avionics, electronic warfare suites, and precision strike capability. Their AESA radar is based on Gallium Arsenide, while rivals increasingly field Gallium Nitride (GaN) radars with superior range and resilience. Thales, the maker of Rafales RBE2 radar is working on a variant that uses GaN technology. Heavy reliance on one imported platform also risks overdependence and cost escalation, with estimates of ₹3.25 lakh crore for the 114 aircraft.Accelerating indigenous programs like the Tejas Mk2 is critical to replace retiring MiGs and Jaguars with a modern fighter. Parallel investment in the Advanced Medium Combat Aircraft will provide stealth capability to counter fifth-generation threats.In essence, 114 Rafales sharpen the IAF’s edge but cannot alone solve the understrength force. India’s airpower strategy must combine imported quality with indigenous quantity, ensuring a diverse mix of platforms that can credibly handle simultaneous threats from China and Pakistan. The Rafale deal should be seen as one pillar in a broader force-building plan, not the solution in itself. Only by integrating Rafales with Tejas Mk2, AMCA, and UCAVs can the IAF achieve the balanced, future-ready force structure it requires.