India’s CO2 Surge Slows: Fossil Emissions Set For Smallest Rise In Years

Last Updated:November 14, 2025, 06:20 IST

A study forecasts an increase of just about 1.4% in India's fossil CO2 emissions for 2025

Despite this welcome deceleration, the GCP cautions that such progress is not enough to avert the most severe climate consequences. (Representational image/News18)

India is set to experience a significant deceleration in the growth of its fossil fuel-related carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions this year, a critical finding from the Global Carbon Project (GCP)’s annual Global Carbon Budget report. The influential international climate research programme forecasts an increase of just about 1.4% in India’s fossil CO2 emissions for 2025. This rate is notably lower than the 4% growth registered in the preceding year, 2024, providing a fragile yet important indicator of shifting energy trends.

The relatively modest projected growth in emissions is a result of two primary, interlinked factors: a favourable monsoon season and a robust expansion of renewable energy. The early arrival and prevalence of the monsoon helped to reduce cooling requirements during the hottest months, consequently lowering the overall demand for electricity from the grid, which in India is heavily reliant on coal. This climatic advantage, combined with the continuous, strong growth in renewable energy capacity, led to very low growth in coal consumption.

According to the GCP study, which is published in the journal Nature, India’s fossil fuel-related emissions are estimated to increase from 3.19 billion tonnes of CO2 equivalent in 2024 to approximately 3.22 billion tonnes in 2025. This rising total reflects the nation’s rapid economic expansion, industrialisation and increasing energy needs, but the slowing rate of growth is a clear signal that the clean energy transition is beginning to temper the upward trajectory.

In a global context, the Indian slowdown is a piece of good news amidst a concerning worldwide outlook. Globally, fossil fuel emissions are projected to rise by 1.1% in 2025, reaching a record high of 38.1 billion tonnes. India’s projected 1.4% increase is slower than its recent history and is even marginally lower than the 1.9% increase forecast for the United States. Furthermore, India’s emissions growth is substantially higher than the 0.4% projected for China, which benefits from an extraordinary rate of renewable energy deployment.

Despite this welcome deceleration, the GCP cautions that such progress is not enough to avert the most severe climate consequences. The report highlights that global energy demand continues to outpace decarbonisation efforts, stressing that the remaining carbon budget for limiting warming to the aspirational 1.5°C threshold is now “virtually exhausted". For India, which remains the world’s third-largest emitter, the challenge now lies in accelerating this deceleration into a period of sustained, absolute emissions decline to align with global climate mitigation requirements.

Pathikrit Sen Gupta

Pathikrit Sen Gupta is a Senior Associate Editor with News18.com and likes to cut a long story short. He writes sporadically on Politics, Sports, Global Affairs, Space, Entertainment, And Food. He trawls X via ...Read More

Pathikrit Sen Gupta is a Senior Associate Editor with News18.com and likes to cut a long story short. He writes sporadically on Politics, Sports, Global Affairs, Space, Entertainment, And Food. He trawls X via ...

Read More

News india India’s CO2 Surge Slows: Fossil Emissions Set For Smallest Rise In Years

Read More