India’s Control Over Indus Waterflow Could Deepen Pakistan’s Water Crisis, Impact Farmers: Report

Last Updated:November 01, 2025, 08:03 IST

Pakistan’s farmers could be impacted as 80% of Pakistan’s agriculture depends on water from the Indus basin.

India’s suspension of the 1960 Indus Waters Treaty after the Pahalgam attack has left Pakistan vulnerable to potential water shortages, raising concerns over its agriculture and food security. (IMAGE: REUTERS)

Pakistan, whose agricultural sector relies heavily on water from the Indus basin, is staring at an acute risk of water shortage because India can change the flow of the Indus River within its technical capacity. The Ecological Threat Report 2025, released by the Sydney-based non-profit Institute for Economics and Peace (IEP), even minor adjustments in dam operations during summers could significantly impact Pakistan’s densely populated plains. These areas are dependent on the Indus basin for 80% of their irrigated agriculture even though India cannot completely stop or divert the flow of water.

The IEP report also highlighted that Pakistan remains vulnerable to seasonal shortages as its storage capacity is limited to roughly 30 days of river flow.

“For Pakistan, the danger is acute. If India were truly to cut off or significantly reduce Indus flows, Pakistan’s densely populated plains would face severe water shortages, especially in winter and dry seasons," the report said.

“Pakistan’s own dam capacity can hold only about 30 days of Indus flow; any prolonged cut would be disastrous if not managed," the report highlighted.

In April 2025, India formally notified Pakistan that it was placing the IWT in abeyance with immediate effect. The decision follows the deadly Pahalgam attack in Kashmir by Pakistan-backed terrorists. India says the treaty will remain suspended until Pakistan “credibly and irrevocably abjures" cross-border terrorism. The government has said India might divert waters originally destined for Pakistan for its own use.

The report also pointed out that Saudi Arabia could side with Pakistan in case of war with India following the signing of a defence agreement in September.

“In September 2025, Pakistan and Saudi Arabia signed a mutual defence treaty, in effect building shared obligations to respond to an attack on the other. While this has mainly been subject of discussion for its effect in providing Saudi Arabia with the nuclear umbrella from Pakistan, it also means that Saudi Arabia would most likely support Pakistan in any conflict with India," the report said.

The report also said that Chinese support for Mohmand Dam in Pakistan was a response to India’s IWT suspension.

“In May 2025, China’s state media announced an acceleration of the Mohmand Dam project in Pakistan – a hydropower dam China was financing, framing it as support to Pakistan amid India’s water “threats". The implication was clear: China signalled solidarity with Pakistan, effectively cautioning India against pushing Pakistan too far on water. China has its own tensions with India over transboundary rivers like the Brahmaputra, so it watches Indus developments closely as part of the regional water geopolitics," the report said.

Shankhyaneel Sarkar

Shankhyaneel Sarkar is a Chief Sub-Editor at News18. He covers international affairs, where he focuses on breaking news to in-depth analyses. He has over seven years of experience during which he has covered se...Read More

Shankhyaneel Sarkar is a Chief Sub-Editor at News18. He covers international affairs, where he focuses on breaking news to in-depth analyses. He has over seven years of experience during which he has covered se...

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News world India’s Control Over Indus Waterflow Could Deepen Pakistan’s Water Crisis, Impact Farmers: Report

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