India-US trade: Merchandise exports to Washington drop after Trump's 50% tariff; shipments to other countries rise

India’s exports to the United States fell in September, while shipments to other countries surpassed past growth figures, according to Crisil’s October report. Merchandise exports to the US dropped 11.9% to $5.5 billion, reversing a 7% gain seen in August 2025.

The decline would have been even sharper if exporters had not made shipments ahead of the US tariff hike, the agency said, as quoted by PTI.This drop comes after US President Donald Trump imposed a 25% additional tariff on Indian imports starting August 27, taking the overall duties to 50%.Meanwhile, exports to non-US markets grew 10.9% in September, up from 6.6% in August.Crisil warned that India’s merchandise exports face pressure not only from US tariffs but also from slower global growth.

The World Trade Organisation expects global trade volumes to rise 2.4% in 2025, slightly lower than 2.8% in 2024, according to PTI.Despite these challenges, India’s current account deficit (CAD) is expected to remain under control, supported by strong services exports, steady remittances, and easing crude prices. Crisil forecasts the CAD at around 1% of GDP this fiscal, compared with 0.6% last year.