Is Iran's Regime Collapsing? Intel Shows US Far From Achieving Its Objectives After Two Weeks

Last Updated:March 13, 2026, 00:01 IST

The US-Israeli bombing campaign has taken out dozens of senior Iranian officials, but intelligence assessments show that the Iranian regime is depicting no signs of a collapse.

The Iranian regime shows no signs of imminent collapse nearly two weeks since the start of the US and Israeli war, according to a report, despite claims from President Donald Trump that Tehran’s leadership was knocked out and America has “already won" the war.

The bombing campaign has taken out dozens of senior Iranian officials, including Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, and damaged Iran’s missile capabilities. However, it has not yet caused a serious risk to the clerical regime’s grip on power, CNN reported, citing two people familiar with the intelligence assessments.

A “multitude" of intelligence reports provide “consistent analysis that the regime is not in danger" of collapse and “retains control of the Iranian public," ‌a source told Reuters. This comes amid mounting pressure on Trump over soaring oil costs, while Iran has indicated that it will continue to fight.

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Trump administration officials have sought to frame the objectives of the war as degrading Iran’s missile, nuclear and naval programmes. While not explicitly suggesting regime change, Trump had encouraged Iranians to rise up and overthrow their government.

Since then, he has demanded “unconditional surrender" by Iran before he can end the attacks. However, his aides have said the declaration of surrender will be made by Trump himself, not the regime. Trump has offered mixed signals about ending the war, saying he will do it “soon" but also claiming to hit Tehran “twenty times harder."

Israel Uncertain About Regime Change

This came after a report by The Guardian claimed that Israel did not have a realistic plan for regime change when it launched its campaign against Iran, with expectations that airstrikes would trigger a popular uprising driven by “wishful thinking" rather than hard intelligence.

ALSO READ: Israel Had No Realistic Plan For Regime Change When Tel Aviv Attacked Iran: Report

Israeli officials in closed discussions also ​have acknowledged there is no certainty the war will lead to the clerical government’s collapse, a senior Israeli official told Reuters.

Since launching their war, the US and Israel have struck a range of Iranian targets, including air defences, nuclear sites, and ​members of the senior leadership. In addition to Ali Khamenei, the strikes have killed dozens of senior officials and some of the highest-ranking commanders in the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).

The Assembly ​of Experts, a group of senior Shiite clerics, earlier this week declared Khamenei’s son Mojtaba as the new supreme leader. Mojtaba Khamenei on Thursday made his first remarks, vowing revenge for the US-Israeli strikes and saying that Tehran will continue to attack US bases in the region.

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