Is Washington’s Trade Offensive Backfiring? How It May Be Drawing India Closer To Russia, China

Last Updated:August 08, 2025, 14:00 IST

Intended to pressure India over Russian oil, Trump’s tariffs may be producing the very outcome Washington sought to avoid — deeper links with Moscow and Beijing

Prime Minister Narendra Modi, Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping. (Alexander Zemlianichenko/Pool via REUTERS)

The United States’ tariff war with India is no longer just a trade spat; it’s beginning to reshape diplomatic alignments. In the past few days, US President Donald Trump has doubled import duties on Indian goods to 50 per cent, accusing New Delhi of “fuelling Russia’s war machine" through continued purchases of discounted crude oil.

The move, coupled with Trump’s threat of further secondary tariffs on countries trading with Russia, has strained a relationship Washington once cast as central to its Indo-Pacific strategy. And while the US hoped economic pressure would push India into concessions on agriculture and dairy market access and, by extension, closer alignment with Washington, the effect so far has been the reverse. New Delhi is deepening engagement with Moscow and even finding common ground with rival Beijing.

India–Russia Ties Hold Firm Amid Tariff Fire

On the same day Trump announced the additional 25 per cent tariff on Indian goods, National Security Adviser Ajit Doval was in Moscow meeting President Vladimir Putin. In a statement from the Russian capital, Doval announced that the Russian leader would be visiting India later this year and said the dates “were almost finalised now," a pointed signal of defiance against Washington’s pressure. External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar is also scheduled to travel to Moscow later this month.

The timing is significant. These visits come as the US piles pressure on India to cut energy trade with Moscow, trade that surged to $65.7 billion in 2023–24, with crude oil alone making up 76 per cent of India’s imports from Russia. India has consistently defended these purchases, pointing out that Russian oil is not under UN sanctions and that safeguarding energy security for 1.4 billion citizens is a non-negotiable priority.

Beyond oil, defence cooperation remains robust: from the delivery of S-400 air defence systems to the licensed production of T-90 tanks, Su-30 MKI fighters, and AK-203 rifles, to joint ventures like the BrahMos missile programme. Both sides have set a target of $100 billion in bilateral trade by 2030.

Moscow Sees Opportunity, And So Does Delhi

Putin’s planned visit is expected to focus on deepening economic and defence cooperation, expanding rupee–ruble payment mechanisms, and strengthening coordination in multilateral forums. New Delhi continues to view Russia as a “longstanding and time-tested partner," a relationship it considers vital for securing energy supplies, accessing key military equipment, and maintaining trade channels outside dollar-based systems.

By engaging more deeply with Russia now, India signals that its strategic autonomy—the ability to maintain diversified partnerships—will not be surrendered under tariff threats.

The China Factor: Rivals With Converging Interests

If the Moscow track is about preserving a trusted partnership, the Beijing track is about strategic pragmatism. Prime Minister Narendra Modi will travel to Tianjin at the end of August for the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation Summit (31 August–1 September), his first trip to China since 2018.

Ahead of that, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi, a member of the CPC Politburo, is scheduled to visit New Delhi on 18 August to meet NSA Doval and discuss the border dispute.

While relations remain strained since the 2020 Galwan Valley clash, both countries have taken steps to stabilise ties: high-level military disengagement talks at Demchok and Depsang in October 2024; Defence Minister Rajnath Singh’s June visit for the SCO defence ministers’ meeting, the first by an Indian defence minister since 2013, where he met counterpart Admiral Dong Jun; and the decision to resume the Kailash Mansarovar Yatra.

There is also potential for Modi to meet both Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping on the SCO sidelines, a rare convergence of the three leaders amid heightened tensions with Washington.

Economic Pressure Is Creating Unlikely Convergences

For India and China, Trump’s tariff blitz has reinforced a shared narrative: defending national interest against unilateral US measures. Both have pushed back against Washington’s attempts to dictate their energy policy, pointing to selective US trade with Russia even as it penalises others.

In practical terms, this could mean aligning positions on energy security in global forums, coordinating within the SCO, and expanding bilateral discussions that had largely stalled after 2020.

Brazil Joins The Pushback

India and China are not alone. Brazil, which has also been hit with a 50 per cent tariff, has rejected Trump’s overtures for trade talks. On Thursday, Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva called Prime Minister Narendra Modi for a conversation lasting over an hour, during which they discussed how both countries, facing the steepest US tariffs, should align forces.

Why This Matters To Washington

For years, the US has sought to draw India closer as a counterbalance to China. But by linking trade negotiations to India’s Russia ties, and threatening secondary sanctions, the Trump administration risks undermining that strategy.

Instead of isolating Moscow, the tariffs may be pushing Delhi towards closer coordination with both Russia and China on select issues. For Washington, that’s a troubling prospect: two of its main strategic challenges, Beijing and Moscow, finding more room to engage with a country it hoped would be firmly in its corner.

Strategic Autonomy In Action

India’s recent moves reflect a consistent foreign policy principle — engagement without alignment. By keeping dialogue open with both Moscow and Beijing, even as it maintains ties with the West, Delhi is signalling that it will not allow any single partner to dictate the terms of its strategic choices.

Trump’s tariff war may have been designed to force India into a binary choice. Instead, it appears to be reinforcing New Delhi’s determination to keep its options, and its partnerships, open.

Karishma Jain

Karishma Jain, Chief Sub Editor at News18.com, writes and edits opinion pieces on a variety of subjects, including Indian politics and policy, culture and the arts, technology and social change. Follow her @kar...Read More

Karishma Jain, Chief Sub Editor at News18.com, writes and edits opinion pieces on a variety of subjects, including Indian politics and policy, culture and the arts, technology and social change. Follow her @kar...

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August 08, 2025, 14:00 IST

News explainers Is Washington’s Trade Offensive Backfiring? How It May Be Drawing India Closer To Russia, China

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