Monsoon off to strong start with 7% surplus rain nationwide; Delhi still dry

Across the country, the monsoon has started strong, with rainfall levels 7 per cent above normal. Northwest India, in particular, witnessed an exceptional spike in rainfall last week, recording 102 per cent more than the average for this time of year.

This surge marks the highest seasonal rainfall among all regions, pushing the overall seasonal total to 37 per cent above normal. Despite the heavy showers drenching much of the region, Delhi remains dry, still waiting for the monsoon to set in.

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) forecasts that this active pattern will persist over the next two weeks, aided by multiple weather systems.

Currently, three weather systems across East, West, and Central India are driving monsoon activity. A low-pressure area developed on Thursday morning over the northwest Bay of Bengal and adjoining coastal regions of Odisha and West Bengal. This system is expected to move west-northwest, impacting areas including northern Odisha, Gangetic West Bengal, Jharkhand, and Chhattisgarh.

In addition, a trough stretching from the northeast Arabian Sea to the Bay of Bengal, along with cyclonic circulations over northeast Madhya Pradesh, is contributing to widespread rainfall.

As a result, several parts of India are bracing for heavy to very heavy rainfall over the next two weeks. Konkan and Goa, Madhya Maharashtra, and Gujarat are expected to experience intense showers. Isolated heavy rainfall is also likely across Punjab, Haryana, Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Rajasthan, Uttar Pradesh, Jammu & Kashmir, and parts of Central and Eastern India, including Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Odisha, Jharkhand, and West Bengal.

Southern states are also in the path of this monsoon surge. Kerala and South Interior Karnataka are set to receive extremely heavy rainfall—exceeding 20 cm in 24 hours on June 26. Meanwhile, strong surface winds ranging from 40 to 60 km per hour will sweep across Karnataka, Coastal Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, and nearby areas until June 29.

The IMD projects that this active monsoon phase will continue until at least July 10. During this period, Central India is expected to receive above-normal rainfall, while northwest India, including the Western Himalayan region, will see normal to above-normal precipitation. Temperatures are likely to remain 2–4 degrees Celsius below average across most of the country, excluding the northeast.

While Delhi stands out as a dry patch in an otherwise rain-soaked region, the active monsoon systems suggest that showers may finally reach the national capital in the coming weeks.

- Ends