Nilambur result crucial for LDF, UDF ahead of upcoming polls  

The result of the Nilambur Assembly byelection on Monday will likely be more consequential for the competing political narratives of the ruling front and the Opposition in the crucial run-up to the 2025 local body polls and the Assembly elections in 2026 than for its arguably trifling impact on the Kerala legislature’s configuration at the fag end of the second Pinarayi Vijayan government.

With the counting scheduled to commence at 8 a.m., the outcome of the high-stakes bypoll can debatably puff up or puncture the ambitions of the ruling Left Democratic Front (LDF) and the Opposition United Democratic Front (UDF) in the critical ballot box battles that lie ahead.

The byelection triggered by the resignation of LDF Independent P.V. Anvar forced the Communist Party of India (Marxist) [CPI(M)] to defend an arguably tricky constituency by fielding a party candidate M. Swaraj for the first time since 2016.

Higher stakes for UDF

The stakes are perhaps higher for the UDF, which has been locked out of power for two successive terms, given that the bypoll is widely perceived as a test of voter opinion ahead of the local body and Assembly elections.

The bypoll outcome might also prompt a stocktaking in the UDF concerning the allegedly radical Islamist Jamaat-e-Islami’s controversial support for the Congress candidate Aryadan Shoukath.

Bid to fragment votes

Mr. Anvar, fighting an independent campaign, aspires to fragment Nilambur votes and projects his candidacy as an opportunity for voters to try a “known option” beyond the LDF-UDF candidates.

The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), initially coy about fielding a candidate in Nilambur, had tapped Mohan George, a member of the electorally significant Christian settler-farmer community, as its standard bearer.

The LDF and UDF claim that the electoral fight is mainly between them. However, both traditional alliances are reportedly apprehensive about the campaigns of the BJP and P.V. Anvar upsetting their duopoly in Nilambur via covert tactical voting in key panchayats.

The LDF and UDF had mounted an expansive ground operation rarely seen in byelection campaigns to win Nilambur. Top leaders camped in the constituency for weeks while star campaigners, including Priyanka Gandhi Vadra, MP, and Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan, hit the hustings. 

The worsening human-wildlife conflict, cratering agrarian economy, “election-eve” distribution of social welfare pensions, the ascendancy of identity politics, illicit poll alliances with communal forces for votes, “demonising” Malappuram voters as economic offenders and Mr. Vijayan’s style of governance dominated the bypoll rhetoric.