Oil prices hits four-year low; consumers gain, producers brace for impact

The falling oil prices, influenced by US President Donald Trump's policies and OPEC+'s increased output quotas, have pushed crude costs to their lowest since the Covid pandemic, benefiting consumers whilst creating challenges for producers.Brent North Sea crude currently trades below $65, significantly lower than the $120 peak witnessed in 2022 after Russia's invasion of Ukraine.The declining oil prices have helped reduce global inflation and stimulated growth in oil-importing nations, particularly in Europe. In the US, the consumer price index dropped 11.8 percent year-on-year in April.As Pushpin Singh, an economist at Cebr explained, reduced crude prices enhance consumers' "discretionary items" spending capacity.

The Brent price decrease of over $10 from last year has lowered various fuel costs, potentially reducing consumer goods prices through decreased transportation and manufacturing expenses.While Trump's trade policies have influenced oil prices, the overall impact on inflation remains uncertain due to potential increases in other resource costs. Singh also noted that lower oil prices could diminish the appeal of renewable energy investments.

Oil-producing nations face significant challenges, particularly high-cost producers who must reduce production, according to Ole Hansen from Saxo Bank. Shale producers are especially vulnerable when prices approach $60, with some firms already reducing investments in the Permian Basin.OPEC+ members show varying resilience to low prices. Saudi Arabia, UAE, and Kuwait maintain substantial monetary reserves, whilst Iran, Venezuela, and Nigeria face greater economic pressures due to limited borrowing capacity.Eight major OPEC+ members, including Saudi Arabia and Russia, announced on Saturday their plans to substantially increase crude oil output for July. The coalition's statement confirmed they would maintain the previously established target of 411,000 barrels per day, which was also set for May and June. This revised production target represents more than three times the volume originally proposed by the alliance.Read more: OPEC+ announces major July output hike as oil prices fall to four-year lowThe recent OPEC+ decision to production by 411,000 barrels daily appears aimed at disciplining quota-breaching members, whilst responding to Trump's pressure for lower prices. This strategy particularly affects economically vulnerable OPEC members and could impact non-OPEC producers like Guyana, whose recent economic growth has relied heavily on oil revenues.