Oil Traders Expect A Short War

Nearly everyone expects this to be a short war. Not just those who started it, but also commodity markets.
Oil prices jumped around 10% when the conflict started, much less than the reaction when Russia attacked Ukraine.

This is understandable: Iran exports only 1.5-1.8 of the 3.2mn barrels per day (mbpd) it produces, of which 80-90% are bought by China.