Phalodi Satta Bazar Revises Predictions After Phase 2 Polling in West Bengal: BJP Or TMC -- Who Is Ahead Now?

Last Updated:April 30, 2026, 09:51 IST

The revised satta bazar projections, released after the record turnout in the second phase, suggest that West Bengal may be heading for a tighter contest than initially expected.

With the second and final phase of polling in West Bengal concluding amid record voter participation, the Phalodi satta bazar has revised its projections, pointing to a much tighter contest between the Trinamool Congress (TMC) and the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) than earlier anticipated.

According to Election Commission data, Phase 1 recorded a turnout of about 92.4 percent, while Phase 2 saw roughly 92.6 percent polling. The combined turnout stands at approximately 92.9 percent, among the highest ever in the state.

This surge in voting numbers has coincided with a recalibration in satta bazar estimates. After the first phase, the betting market had projected the TMC comfortably ahead with around 158-161 seats, while the BJP was seen at 127-130.

Following the second phase, however, the tables have turned with the TMC now pegged to be trailing the BJP. As per the latest estimates of the Phalodi satta bazar, the BJP is now projected to win 150-152 seats while the TMC may settle at around 137-140 seats. The majority mark required to form a government in the state stands at 148.

The shifting projections come just as exit polls, released after 6 pm following the close of polling on Wednesday, offered a more structured but divided picture of voter sentiment. Most major agencies have indicated a significant surge for the BJP, with several projecting it to cross the majority mark for the first time in the 294-member Assembly.

The CNN-News18 Vote Vibe exit poll for West Bengal shows the BJP significantly ahead in the seats that went to polls in the first phase. The second instalment of the survey’s projections are expected later today.

As per the Matrize exit poll for West Bengal, the BJP is projected to win 146-161 seats while the TMC could settle at 125-140. The PMARQ exit poll also shows the BJP ahead of Trinamool in Bengal with 146-161 seats as against 118-138 for the TMC.

Poll Diary has projected the BJP in the range of 142-171 seats, with the TMC at 99-127. Chanakya Strategies has similarly estimated the BJP at around 150-160 seats, again suggesting a potential regime change.

However, not all projections align. Peoples Pulse stands out as an outlier, forecasting a strong TMC comeback with 177-187 seats, indicating that the contest may still be more competitive than a straightforward BJP sweep.

A broader “poll of polls" trend places the BJP in the 137-157 range while the Trinamool Congress trails at an estimated 131-151 seats.

After the second phase of polling, the estimates of the satta bazar are largely in line with the exit poll projections with both suggesting an advantage for the BJP.

At stake is not just government formation but the future political trajectory of the state. For Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee, the election is about retaining her stronghold after a dominant 2021 mandate. For the BJP, it represents its most serious bid yet to capture power in a state where it has steadily expanded its base over the past decade.

Beyond West Bengal, the Phalodi satta bazar’s projections for other states have remained largely unchanged. In Tamil Nadu, the DMK-led alliance is still seen comfortably ahead with around 141-144 seats, suggesting continuity for MK Stalin. In Kerala, the Congress-led UDF is projected at 75-77 seats against the LDF’s 62-64, indicating a possible return to the state’s pattern of alternating governments.

Assam continues to point towards a decisive NDA victory with 97-99 seats, paving the way for a third consecutive term and a second stint for Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma. In Puducherry, the NDA is expected to retain an edge, though the contest remains closer compared to Assam.

Taken together, the revised satta bazar trends and sharply split exit polls suggest that West Bengal could be heading for one of its most closely watched electoral outcomes in recent years. However, both remain indicative at best. The final verdict will only be clear when the votes are counted, and Bengal has often defied predictions before.

Health warning: While the satta bazar offers a snapshot of market sentiment, it remains an informal and non-scientific indicator that has gone wrong in the past.

(DISCLAIMER: Gambling is illegal unless permitted by state-specific laws. News18.com does not vouch for the factual correctness of these projections or promote betting markets in any manner.)

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