Record voting in Seemanchal may redraw political map, say analysts

Patna: Record high polling percentage in the four districts of the Seemanchal region during the second phase of election held on Tuesday hints at virtual decimation of the Asaduddin Owaisi-led AIMIM, and gains for the Congress and RJD, political analysts feel.Besides, the riddle that has also been puzzling the political observers is identifying the reasons behind the exceptional high poll percentage in the region.The average polling of the four districts in the region is 73.2% — Kishanganj 76.26%, Katihar 75.23%, followed by Purnia 73.79% and Araria 67.7%.In the 2020 election, the AIMIM had won the Amour and Baisi seats in Purnia district, Jokihat in Araria, along with Bahadurganj and Kochadhaman in Kishanganj.Observers feel the undercurrent of the Tuesday’s voting trend indicate that the AIMIM could retain the Amour seat, but is on the losing side in the remaining four, yielding gains to the RJD in Baisi and Jokihat, and to the Congress in Bahadurganj and Kochadhaman.They said overall, given the trends, the BJP and the JD(U) seem to have maintained their respective tally of eight and four wins respectively recorded in 2020.

If the JD(U) seems to be losing the Barari seat to the Congress, it might succeed in balancing it by wresting the Manihari (ST) seat from the Congress.Comparatively, the Congress, too, might also maintain its win of five seats like in 2020, while the RJD might succeed in increasing its winning tally to four seats, an increase by three seats over the one win it recorded in 2020.The political observers said the likely wins of the Congress could be in Kadwa; Barari at the cost of the JD(U), and also in the Bahadurganj, Kishanganj and Araria seats.

While the RJD held the lone Thakurganj seat in Kishanganj district, its four wins this time could occur in Baisi, Rupauli, Kochadhaman and Jokihat, where Sarfaraz Alam from Jan Suraaj has the potential to upset it. If Mahboob Alam from the CPI(ML) wins the Balrampur seat, it would be his third straight win.This streak of victories of the NDA and Grand Alliance candidates has been possible due to the highly polarised bipolar voting between these two political combines, which, in turn, pushed the smaller parties like the AIMIM and the Jan Suraaj to the margins.

Even a random look at the long queues of voters, including women attired in their festive bests and youths of various caste and communities, witnessed at the polling booths in the 24 assembly constituencies indicated the mass fervour for polling, they felt.From a cross-section of opinions, the three-fold reasons behind the mass enthusiasm for voting are: one, the general doubt and suspicion that the special intensive revision (SIR) of the electoral rolls could help the NDA, especially the BJP; second, persistent campaign by Owaisi in favour of the candidates of the AIMIM whose tag of being the B-team of the BJP continued to stick; and, third, the allegation of ‘ghuspaithiyas’ too had to be neutralised.To add to that, the INDIA bloc leaders, like Rahul Gandhi, Priyanka Gandhi and Imran Pratapgarhi from the Congress and Tejashwi Prasad Yadav from the RJD also roused the passion of voters, who, it seems, galvanised more towards the Grand Alliance, they said, adding the NDA for its share had its almost static set of voters.