Stock market outlook: Fed rate call and FII flows set the tone; CPI, rupee in focus this week

Global cues are likely to take centre stage for Indian equities in the coming week, with investors bracing for the US Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision and closely tracking foreign institutional investor (FII) activity for direction, PTI reported.Analysts said domestic markets, which ended last week largely flat, are expected to react to a mix of global monetary signals, macro data and currency movements. Benchmark indices Sensex and Nifty closed the previous week with marginal losses, reflecting cautious sentiment.“This week, markets will closely track India’s CPI print on December 12. Globally, the spotlight will be on the US Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision, which could drive risk sentiment across emerging markets already navigating currency pressures,” Ajit Mishra, SVP (Research) at Religare Broking Ltd, said, PTI quoted.The rupee, which breached the 90-per-dollar mark last week, is also likely to stay on investors’ radar amid concerns over capital flows and global risk appetite.According to Pravesh Gour, senior technical analyst at Swastika Investmart Ltd, attention is firmly shifting to the US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting scheduled for December 9–10. Alongside the rate decision, key US macro data will also be tracked.

“Alongside the FOMC decision, key US economic data will remain on investors' radar. The US JOLTs Job Openings data due on December 9 and the Employment Cost Index (q/q), scheduled for December 10, will provide fresh insights into the health of the US labour market and wage pressures,” Gour said.He added that movements in the US dollar index and Treasury bond yields will be critical, as sharp swings could influence risk appetite across global equity and debt markets.Market participants will also watch the tone of the Fed’s post-policy commentary and guidance on the future path of interest rates. “Beyond the rate action itself, investors will be keenly tracking the Fed’s commentary and guidance on the future path of interest rates — an element that may prove even more influential in the weeks ahead,” said Ponmudi R, CEO of Enrich Money, PTI quoted him as saying.With India’s economic growth remaining resilient despite global headwinds, analysts believe the domestic market could benefit if global fund flows rotate back towards emerging markets. “In this context, the Fed's messaging will be pivotal in shaping near-term sentiment and market direction for India,” Ponmudi added.(Disclaimer: Recommendations and views on the stock market, other asset classes or personal finance management tips given by experts are their own. These opinions do not represent the views of The Times of India)