Temperatures Hit 38°C As March Begins, Experts Warn Of Hotter Year With El Niño Comeback

Last Updated:March 04, 2026, 11:10 IST

The latest WMO update indicates a widespread global signal for above-average land surface temperature during March to May, with return of El Niño after July

The world is bracing for one of the hottest years ahead with El Niño looking to make a comeback after July. With temperatures rising steadily across the country, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) has already warned of a hotter than usual summer in India with heatwaves beginning this March.

The heat has set in early this year with mercury crossing 35-38℃ in Rajasthan, Gujarat, Maharashtra, Odisha, peaking at 38.5℃ in Akola, Maharashtra. According to the weather department, the day temperatures are likely to remain 4-6℃ over many parts of Northwest India this week, while parts of Gujarat and Andhra Pradesh could be hit by unusually higher number of heatwaves this March.

Overall, above-normal heatwave days are expected over most parts of India during March to May. But Eastern Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Jharkhand, Gangetic West Bengal, Odisha, Chhattisgarh, and Telangana, Rayalaseema, Andhra Pradesh in the south, and Gujarat and Rajasthan in the west are expected to be hit the hardest. Meteorologists say the region is naturally prone to heatwave.

This comes after India experienced its fifth warmest February since 1901, after 2025, 2016, 2023 and 2006, with mean monthly temperature nearly a degree higher than usual at 21.7℃. There were no cold waves or cold days reported in February. The rainfall was scarce through the last two months, with the rainfall deficit touching 60 per cent for the entire country.

“The rainfall in February was the lowest since 2001, and third lowest since 1901. There were as many as nine Western Disturbances (WDs) in February, compared to just 5-6 what we normally witness, but barely any of them were active. Most of them were feeble, did not interact with easterlies and caused minimal rain, and the deficit widened," said IMD chief Dr Mrityunjay Mohapatra.

The temperatures rose during the day and night especially after February 15, reaching nearly 5-8℃ higher than normal in a few places in Gujarat, Rajasthan and coastal Karnataka where they hovered over 30-37℃.

El Niño Set To Make A Comeback

In its latest update on Tuesday, the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) said the weak La Niña event is expected to fade into ENSO-neutral conditions which may swing to a warming El Niño episode later this year. While neutral conditions are likely to continue till May-June, they are most likely expected to transition to El Niño after July.

“We are monitoring the conditions. It is too early to predict with accuracy when it will exactly begin, and how strong it is going to be. But most models indicate that the transition is expected after July," added Dr Mohapatra.

El Niño refers to the large-scale warming of the ocean-surface temperatures in the central and equatorial Pacific Ocean, which influences the tropical atmospheric circulation, especially winds and rainfall patterns in countries like India. It is associated with below-normal rainfall during monsoons, and higher-than usual temperatures in India.

WMO Global Producing Centers forecasts indicate a 60 per cent chance of neutral conditions during May-July, while chances of El Niño steadily increases to 40 per cent. The latest update says that for March to May 2026, there is a widespread global signal for above-average land surface temperature.

“The most recent El Niño, in 2023-24, was one of the five strongest on record and it played a role in the record global temperatures we saw in 2024. The WMO community will be carefully monitoring conditions in the coming months to inform decision-making," stated WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo.

News india Temperatures Hit 38°C As March Begins, Experts Warn Of Hotter Year With El Niño Comeback

Read More