Third-Front talk returns in UP as AIMIM explores Dalit-Muslim consolidation

Lucknow: A day after All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen (AIMIM) chief Asaduddin Owaisi signalled his party’s willingness to join hands with opposition forces in upcoming UP Assembly elections, political arc lights shifted to another alliance factor that could potentially play a vital role in reshaping the state’s political landscape.Political observers said that Owaisi may well be looking to consolidate the Dalit and the non-Yadav OBC bloc to strengthen its position in UP.Sources said that while the AIMIM chief took on Samajwadi Party by holding the rally in Matera, the Assembly seat that has been a bastion of SP, he remained soft on Mayawati’s

BSP

and Chandrashekhar Azad’s Azad Samaj Party.The AIMIM has recently publicly stated that the BSP was a “natural ally” in states like

Uttar Pradesh

. The AIMIM ranks have, in fact, been advocating for a coalition with the BSP, aiming to consolidate Dalit and Muslim votes to challenge the ruling parties and provide an alternative.

Experts said that if even a portion of these groups can be consolidated, it could create a meaningful vote bloc. The challenge, however, is converting social arithmetic into electoral chemistry.As a matter of fact, the AIMIM, BSP and Upendra Kushwaha’s Rashtriya Lok Samata Party (RLSP) came together to form a third front called the Grand Democratic Secular Front (GDSF) in the 2020 Bihar elections. The front, however, performed poorly overall — out of the 243 seats in the Bihar Assembly, the alliance managed to win only six seats.

Interestingly, BSP has officially decided to contest the 2027 UP Assembly elections alone, strictly ruling out any political alliances.Analysts point out that Owaisi raised the pitch strategically from Bahraich, which has been witnessing a long historical contest between Maharaja Suhaildev and Syed Salar Masud Ghazi, the 11th-century warrior who participated in the early Ghaznavid campaigns in northern India.The

BJP

, sources said, has invested considerable political capital in the Suheldev narrative over the past decade. Owaisi’s intervention in this region could thus be interpreted as an attempt to challenge BJP’s ideological influence while simultaneously testing the opposition’s ability to mobilise minorities.Not surprisingly, the BJP has decided to intensify its groundwork in Bahraich and beyond through the ongoing campaign marking completion of 12 years of NDA rule at the Centre.BJP district president Brijesh Pandey said that the party has already stepped up its campaign in all 14 blocks of Bahraich to reach out to every section of society. “We have been relying on the work of our workers and public welfare schemes of the Yogi Adityanath govt,” he said, while speaking to TOI.A senior BJP leader said that Owaisi’s positioning would essentially be bothering the Samajwadi Party and its ally Congress, which have been relying essentially on consolidation of Muslim votes. “The opposition parties would eventually be contesting among themselves,” said UP BJP spokesperson Hero Bajpai.In the case of UP, however, the AIMIM has hardly proved to be a challenger. In the 2022 Assembly elections, the party contested on 95 seats and lost deposits on all.Its vote share was less than 0.5%.