Trump’s Caribbean ‘Drug War’: What's Happening, And Is It A Pretext To Topple Maduro?

Last Updated:October 22, 2025, 14:04 IST

Framed as a fight against cartels, Washington’s Caribbean offensive has revived fears of US-backed regime change in Latin America

The Trump administration believes Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro is not doing enough to stop the alleged flow of drugs from Venezuela to the US. (IMAGE: REUTERS)

The United States has launched seven lethal military strikes on boats in the Caribbean since early September. US President Donald Trump said the vessels were used by drug traffickers and “narco-terrorists" linked to criminal groups in Venezuela and Colombia. The attacks have so far killed at least 32 people.

Alongside the strikes, Trump has:

• Authorised covert CIA operations inside Venezuela
• Raised the US bounty for information leading to Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro’s arrest to $50 million
• Ordered B-52 bombers to conduct air manoeuvres near Venezuela’s coast
• Replaced Admiral Alvin Holsey, head of the US Southern Command overseeing Latin America, two years ahead of schedule

Speaking about the new phase of pressure, Trump said: “We are certainly looking at land now because we have the sea very well under control."

What Is Known About The Strikes?

Each of the seven strikes targeted vessels suspected of trafficking drugs or aiding terrorist-designated groups. Here’s the strike-by-strike timeline:

• September 2: 11 people killed. Trump said the vessel belonged to the Tren de Aragua gang, designated by the US as a terrorist organisation.
• September 15: 3 killed. Trump referred to “narco-terrorists from Venezuela." Colombian President Gustavo Petro said one of the dead was a Colombian fisherman and called the strike murder.
• September 19: 3 killed. Cocaine was later recovered by Dominican authorities.
• October 3: 4 people killed. Petro said the victims were Colombian citizens.
• October 14: 6 killed “just off the coast of Venezuela." Families in Trinidad and Tobago confirmed two were locals.
• October 16: 2 killed aboard a semi-submersible. Two survivors were repatriated to Colombia and Ecuador.
• October 17: 3 killed. The US claimed the victims were smuggling drugs for Colombia’s ELN insurgent group, a terrorist-designated organisation since 1997.

Why Has Trump Escalated Now?

Though the Trump administration frames its maritime campaign as part of the wider war on drugs, its scale, targets, and secrecy point to a deeper agenda, namely regime change in Venezuela.

The justification itself is being questioned: Venezuela is not a major source of drugs reaching the US, particularly not fentanyl, which is overwhelmingly trafficked from or through Mexico. Cocaine production is largely concentrated in Colombia, and while smuggling routes do exist across the Caribbean, Venezuela has not traditionally been a dominant player.

Former Indian ambassador to Venezuela R Viswanathan told The Indian Express that the drug war narrative may simply be a pretext, much like in past US operations that toppled hostile regimes. He said, “The Trump administration would like a regime change in Venezuela… this is a pretext that the US has used in this region earlier too." He pointed to the ouster of Manuel Noriega in Panama (1989) and Juan Hernández in Honduras (2022) as examples.

Beyond geopolitics, energy may also be a key factor. Venezuela holds the world’s largest proven oil reserves, and any revival of its oil sector would increase competition in global markets. Viswanathan pointed out that if Venezuela begins pumping at full capacity, it could challenge US dominance, especially when aligned with other sanctioned producers like Iran and Russia.

Who Is Driving This Inside Washington?

The Venezuela campaign is being directed by a core group around Trump: Secretary of State Marco Rubio, Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth, and Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman General Dan Caine.

Rubio, whose family fled Cuba’s communist regime, has long called for Maduro’s removal. Caine, a former CIA associate director for military affairs, now plays a central role in both intelligence and military operations. Holsey’s removal from Southern Command effectively gave Caine and Hegseth more control over operations in the region.

The public leak of CIA authorisation is being seen as a calculated tactic, one that could fracture Maduro’s inner circle, provoke defections, and destabilise the regime’s military-intelligence network.

Who Is Nicolás Maduro?

Nicolás Maduro has ruled Venezuela since 2013, after the death of Hugo Chávez. Chávez built his support through populist welfare schemes backed by oil wealth, but Maduro inherited a nation sliding into collapse. Since taking power, he has presided over a deep economic crisis marked by hyperinflation, food and fuel shortages, mass migration, and human rights violations.

The 2018 presidential election that returned Maduro to power was widely viewed as fraudulent. Opposition candidates were arrested, barred, or forced into exile. In 2024, his regime again claimed victory in a presidential election that independent observers said was won by Edmundo González Urrutia, the candidate backed by opposition leader María Corina Machado.

Maduro rejected the result. Protesters were met with gunfire and mass arrests. Thousands were detained. Despite international outrage, Maduro maintained control, largely thanks to his security forces and a political elite that relies on him to shield them from accountability.

Viswanathan noted that Maduro’s regime is not held up by personal charisma, unlike Chávez, but by a system. “He is backed by a whole system, and that system will fight really hard to prevent a pro-American opposition from coming to power."

How Is Maduro Responding To The Offensive?

The Venezuelan President has sharply condemned the US strikes, calling them “illegal acts of war" and warning that any attempt at a land invasion would be met with “total resistance." In a national broadcast, he announced the deployment of the country’s armed forces, activated civilian militias, and placed coastal and border regions on high alert. “We will fight them on land, air and sea," he said.

This military posture is part of a larger survival strategy. Over the past decade, Maduro has fortified his grip on power through an elaborate security structure. At its core are Cuban-trained intelligence officers, senior military officials loyal to the ruling United Socialist Party, and heavily armed paramilitary units tasked with suppressing dissent. This apparatus has helped the regime withstand multiple coup attempts, international sanctions, and even an assassination attempt involving explosives-laden drones in 2018.

The current escalation has deepened the sense of siege within the regime. Viswanathan told The Indian Express that Maduro’s resistance is not simply about ideology or nationalism, it is existential. “Generals, cabinet ministers, electoral officials, and spies all have something to lose," he said. “They will fight to avoid the fate of others like Noriega or Hernández."

Both Manuel Noriega of Panama and Juan Hernández of Honduras were once entrenched leaders who fell after US intervention, and ended up behind bars. That precedent looms large in Caracas.

History Of US Interventions In Latin America

The current US military strikes in the Caribbean and covert operations inside Venezuela may seem sudden, but they fit into a much longer pattern of American intervention in Latin America, often justified on grounds like fighting communism, drugs, or corruption.

For decades, the United States has supported regime change in the region when it believed its strategic or economic interests were at stake. In 1954, it backed a coup in Guatemala that removed a democratically elected leader accused of being too close to communists. In 1973, the CIA supported the military overthrow of Chile’s President Salvador Allende. During the Cold War, the US helped arm rebel groups like the Contras in Nicaragua, trained Latin American military officers in counter-insurgency tactics, and backed right-wing dictatorships that targeted left-wing activists and journalists.

These actions were often driven by a mix of political ideology and business interests, such as protecting the profits of the US-based United Fruit Company or controlling access to oil, minerals, and trade routes.

In Venezuela, tensions with the US go back decades, especially during the presidency of Hugo Chávez. But Washington stopped short of direct military action. That began to change in 2019, when the Trump administration declared opposition leader Juan Guaidó as Venezuela’s legitimate president. Around the same time, Trump’s former National Security Advisor John Bolton openly admitted he had supported coup attempts against Maduro, though he blamed their failure on poor execution.

Now, with confirmed CIA operations on Venezuelan soil and US naval strikes killing dozens in the region, many believe the old US playbook is back in motion, only this time, it’s unfolding in the open.

What Happens Next, And What Are The Risks?

Maduro has few reliable allies. Russia and China may defend him diplomatically, but military support is unlikely. Brazil’s President Lula could have been a regional ally, but Maduro publicly insulted him after Lula questioned the 2024 election, severing potential solidarity.

For the United States, the risk lies in escalation. Civilian casualties, regional instability, or a prolonged power vacuum could damage Washington’s credibility and revive anti-American sentiment across Latin America. The opposition, too, faces a critical test: whether it can transition Venezuela without chaos if Maduro falls.

Trump’s team appears to be betting on swift internal collapse. But if that doesn’t happen, and Maduro holds his ground, Venezuela could become the front line in a long and unpredictable confrontation.

Karishma Jain

Karishma Jain, Chief Sub Editor at News18.com, writes and edits opinion pieces on a variety of subjects, including Indian politics and policy, culture and the arts, technology and social change. Follow her @kar...Read More

Karishma Jain, Chief Sub Editor at News18.com, writes and edits opinion pieces on a variety of subjects, including Indian politics and policy, culture and the arts, technology and social change. Follow her @kar...

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