US faces $7 billion loss from declining international student numbers: Can universities stay globally competitive?

The US faces a potential $7 billion loss in economic revenue as international student enrolments are projected to fall sharply in the coming academic year. One analysis from the National Association of Foreign Student Affairs (NAFSA) estimates that 30–40 percent fewer international students may register at US universities, putting more than 60,000 jobs at risk.The decline follows a series of visa restrictions and pauses in the application process under President Trump’s administration. Visa interviews were halted in May 2025, and in June, restrictions were applied to immigrants from 19 countries, including those seeking student visas. Part of the pause aimed to expand reviews of applicants’ social media and online activity.Economic losses and job impactsNAFSA’s July report, using data from the State Department, the International Institute of Education, and the Student and Exchange Visitor Information System, projected severe economic and employment consequences.

California alone could see more than $1 billion lost, with universities and associated sectors bearing the brunt.Patrick Allard, a public health scientist at the University of California, Los Angeles, told The Scientist, “It makes me sad. It's going to make our environment less dynamic overall because it's through the exchange of ideas that that we gain momentum or we maintain the competitiveness that we have.” Allard, originally from France, highlighted the broader impact on research teams and academic labs.

International research talent at riskThe reduction in international students threatens more than economic revenue. Research and academia could lose invaluable talent, affecting innovation and scientific output. Allard in conversation with The Scientist said, “I'm thinking about all the undergrads. I'm thinking about all the grad students. I'm thinking about the postdocs who've come from around the world and trained in the lab and helped us produce research that is useful for the state of California, that's useful for the US.

”Additional changes to the H-1B visa, which supports highly skilled workers in academia and industry, have increased the application fee to $10,000 for new applicants, creating financial barriers for prospective talent. “It means that only the richest can afford it and then too bad for all the others,” Allard quoted by The Scientist said.Universities report declining enrolmentsSome institutions have already seen declines in graduate student numbers, with federal data indicating a one-fifth drop in international students in August 2025.

Universities like the University of California, San Diego, stated that final enrolment figures for Fall would not be confirmed until December or January.Maintaining US academic influence amid shrinking international talentUS universities have long relied on international students for revenue, diversity, and research excellence. The projected losses in both talent and funding raise questions about the country’s ability to sustain its global leadership in higher education. With fewer foreign students, institutions may struggle to maintain innovative research environments and global networks, potentially weakening their competitive edge in the coming years.