US military-industrial complex is profiting from Ukraine war: Report

While US president Donald Trump and some of his MAGA officials have accused India of fuelling Russia's war against Ukraine, a new report by the think tank, Observer Research Foundation (ORF), reveals that the US military-industrial complex has benefited enormously from the conflict, with an "explosive" growth in orders for arms, production, profits, and AI systems agreements.If the report is any indication, the boom has continued beyond Joe Biden's tenure as US Prez and into Trump's, despite the latter casting all blame on his predecessor for the conflict. From Feb 2022, when the war broke out, US has so far provided Ukraine with nearly $66.9 billion in military assistance, the report states.Between 2020 and 2024, 45% of Ukraine's arms came from the US, forming 9.3% of America's total arms exports in this period and peaking after the conflict began in 2022.

Though the ORF report does not make a distinction or comparison between the two presidencies, this was the period of Biden's presidency. As president-elect in Dec last year, Trump criticised Biden administration's move to allow Ukrainian forces to use American long-range weapons to strike deeper into Russian territory. Ever since he took office in Jan, Trump has repeatedly claimed that under his leadership, the war would not have broken out.

However, 2024 onwards, and "increasingly in 2025," US began shifting supplies to Ukraine from direct aid to sales, according to the report by Jaibal Naduvah of ORF. In Aug, for instance, US approved a $825 million sale of 3,350 extended range attack munitions (ERAM) missiles with associated equipment to Ukraine. Funding for these sales comes from Nato allies (Denmark, Norway, Netherlands) and US FMF programmes.In July, US persuaded European Nato states and Canada to buy over $10 billion in American arms, either to replenish stockpiles for Ukraine or for direct transfers under Nato PURL initiative. The agreement, clinched at the July 14 meeting between Trump and Nato secretary-general Mark Rutte, requires participating states to fund tranches of about $500 million each.Almost $2 billion has been committed via this route so far. On Aug 4, the first package of artillery & ammunition worth over $500 million was announced, funded by Netherlands.

After that, Denmark, Norway and Sweden jointly pledged $500 million for equipment and munitions; and Germany and Canada declared they would fund a $500 million PURL package each for Ukraine.Further, at Nato summit in June, member states committed to raising annual defence and security spending to 5% of GDP by 2035, a 150% jump from the 2% target agreed in 2006 and reaffirmed in 2014 after the Crimea crisis. In 2025, all allies are expected to meet or exceed the 2% threshold.

"Notably, US accounted for 64% of Nato allies' arms imports in 2020-24, up from 52% in 2015-19, largely driven by Ukraine crisis," the report states."US's share of global arms exports grew from 35% in 2014-19 to 43% in 2020-24, a rise of 21%. In 2024, the total value of transferred defence articles, services, and security cooperation activities under Foreign Military Sales (FMS) system was $117.9 billion, a 45.7% increase from $80.9 billion in 2023.

Direct commercial sales in the same period rose to $200.8 billion from $157.5 billion, marking a 27.6% increase.

Within US defence industrial base of more than 100,000 companies, five prime contractors - Lockheed Martin, RTX, General Dynamics, Northrop Grumman, and Boeing - secured over one-third of all Pentagon contracts... Continuous conflicts in different parts of the world - from Iraq and Afghanistan to Ukraine - along with growing Chinese threat, have generated steady windfalls," the report points out."Ukraine conflict has set cash registers ringing for US defence contractors... Eisenhower's caution against the military-industrial complex is today more potent than ever," the report notes.