Uttarkashi Disaster: We Can Predict Tsunamis And Cyclones, So Why Not Cloudbursts?

Last Updated:August 06, 2025, 14:59 IST

A cloudburst is essentially an extreme weather event (over 100 mm of rainfall in less than an hour) usually in a small area no larger than 20-30 sq kms

According to local authorities, 15 to 20 houses were completely destroyed in the Uttarkashi cloudburst. (Photo: ANI)

In just 34 seconds, disaster struck the Himalayan village of Dharali near the Kheer Ganga river in Uttarakhand’s Uttarkashi district. A cloudburst on Tuesday afternoon unleashed a violent torrent of water, mud, and debris that flattened Dharali’s bustling market and dozens of homes. At least four people have been confirmed dead and over 50 are still missing. But beyond the immediate tragedy, the incident has once again raised a painful question: Why, in an age of satellite monitoring and early-warning systems, is modern science still unable to predict cloudbursts?

The incident occurred at 1:55 pm on Tuesday, August 5, catching residents and tourists completely off guard. The water level in the Kheer Ganga river rose dramatically within seconds, pushing a deadly mix of debris and floodwater into the heart of the village. Dramatic videos shared on social media show buildings collapsing like paper houses, swept away by the surge. Chief Minister Pushkar Singh Dhami called the event “sorrowful and shocking," while Union Home Minister Amit Shah immediately deployed NDRF, SDRF, Army, and ITBP teams for rescue operations.

According to local authorities, 15 to 20 houses were completely destroyed. Gangotri Dham, a major pilgrimage destination, has been cut off from the district headquarters, deepening the region’s isolation. Survivors have spoken of hearing a roaring sound moments before the wave struck, the only warning they ever received.

Why Can We Predict Cyclones, Tsunamis But Not Cloudbursts?

Unlike cyclones or earthquakes, cloudbursts remain notoriously difficult to predict. A cloudburst is essentially an extreme weather event (over 100 mm of rainfall in less than an hour) usually in a small area no larger than 20-30 square kilometres. It typically occurs when moisture-laden monsoon clouds are forced upwards by the mountains, triggering rapid condensation and sudden downpours when hot and cold air masses meet.

Despite advances in meteorology, there are major challenges. First, the small scale and short duration of cloudbursts mean they require high-resolution radar and satellite data, which is still sparse in hilly regions. Second, the rugged Himalayan topography complicates weather modeling. Third, although India does have Doppler weather radar systems that can signal intense rainfall, they’re not deployed densely enough to capture hyperlocal events like what happened in Dharali.

In this case, the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) had indeed issued a general warning for heavy rain in the area, but there was no specific alert for a cloudburst. That distinction matters. While heavy rainfall alerts can prompt caution, they do not trigger immediate evacuation or emergency response, as a cloudburst warning might.

Climate Change Is Making Things Worse

According to meteorologists and climate experts, the frequency of cloudbursts in the Himalayas has increased by nearly 1.5 times in the past two decades. Warmer air holds more moisture, and increasingly erratic monsoon patterns mean more intense rainfall events. The Himalayas, already fragile and densely populated in parts, are bearing the brunt, with landslides, flash floods, and extreme weather becoming the new normal.

In Dharali, the fear is still palpable. Families are still searching for missing loved ones. Roads are blocked, communication is patchy, and many areas remain inaccessible. The devastation has reignited debate over whether India is doing enough to adapt its meteorological infrastructure to deal with such events.

Urgent Need For Better Forecasting Tools

If India can issue early warnings for tsunamis using ocean-floor sensors and predict cyclones through satellite modeling days in advance, why not cloudbursts? Experts say it’s not just a question of science but also of investment and prioritisation. High-resolution Doppler radars cost crores of rupees and require ideal geographical conditions. Installing them across the length of the Himalayas is a logistical and financial challenge, but one that may no longer be optional.

The Uttarkashi cloudburst disaster is a brutal reminder that while nature cannot always be tamed, its fury can sometimes be anticipated. Cloudbursts may be unpredictable in their exact timing, but better data collection, dense sensor networks, and AI-based models could at least narrow down vulnerable zones. For now, though, villages like Dharali remain terrifyingly exposed.

Location :

Uttarkashi, India, India

First Published:

August 06, 2025, 14:58 IST

News explainers Uttarkashi Disaster: We Can Predict Tsunamis And Cyclones, So Why Not Cloudbursts?

Read More