Vijay sounds poll bugle: Disruptor or just another player in Tamil Nadu?

NEW DELHI: At a rally in Madurai last month, Tamil superstar Vijaycompared himself to a lion and declared that next year’s assembly elections in Tamil Nadu would be a battle between his Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) and the ruling Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK).“A lion knows how to live in a crowd and also how to live alone. It remains unique. A lion comes out only to hunt, not for entertainment — and it always hunts living prey,” he told supporters, drawing thunderous applause. As the actor-politician — fondly called 'Thalapathy' (leader) by millions of his fans — launches his campaign from Trichy on September 13, the question is whether he can disrupt a political order dominated since 1969 by the DMK and its arch-rival, the All India Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK). Or will he end up splitting votes, and who stands to gain (or lose)?

Vijay: Tamil cinema’s latest star in politics — no repeat of Rajinikanth’s misfireWhen Vijay formally launched TVK in February 2024, he ended years of speculation about his political plunge.

The move carried forward Tamil Nadu’s storied tradition of Tamil film stars entering politics — from CN Annadurai and M Karunanidhi, who scripted screenplays before turning chief ministers, to acting legends and future chief ministers MG Ramachandran, his wife VN Janaki and protégé J Jayalalithaa.The legacy endures today with Karunanidhi’s son, incumbent chief minister MK Stalin, and Stalin’s son and deputy, Udhayanidhi — both of whom began in cinema before turning to politics.

Elsewhere, Kamal Haasan, founder of the Makkal Needhi Maiam and now a Rajya Sabha MP, and Andhra Pradesh deputy chief minister Pawan Kalyan continue to straddle the worlds of film and politics.Rajinikanth’s aborted entry in 2020 had cast doubt on whether another superstar would take the plunge. Vijay’s decisive leap ended that suspense. But can 'Thalapathy' emerge as a political heavyweight himself?What Vijay brings to the tableVijay comes with a ready-made mass base. In the 2021 assembly elections, 1.37 crore voters aged 18–29 made up 22 per cent of Tamil Nadu’s electorate.

Analysts say the youth bloc is where TVK could make its first mark.“Vijay’s fan following is giving TVK a push. He is finding resonance among younger voters, particularly those under 40,” political commentator R Kannan told The Times of India, echoing the view.At 51, Vijay is younger than most political veterans and has previously taken stands on sensitive issues, including his presence at the 2017 pro-Jallikattu protests.

TVK itself evolved from his welfare-oriented fan club, the Vijay Makkal Iyakkam.Analyst and psephologist JVC Sreeram sees the actor-politician posing a ‘serious challenge’ to the big two - though not necessarily winning the polls - and outperforming all previous celebrity first-timers."At the moment, it looks like Vijay is posing a serious challenge. When I say serious challenge, it doesn't mean he's going to come to power.

With no stalwarts left after Jayalalithaa (AIADMK) and Karunanidhi (DMK), Vijay’s charisma and timing give him more traction than earlier celebrity entrants,” Sreeram said.Vijay’s ‘political’ and ‘ideological’ rivalsAt TVK’s maiden state conference in Villupuram in October 2024, he set out his principal rivals: the ruling DMK as his 'political adversary' and the BJP — in power nationally since 2014 but a marginal force in Tamil Nadu — as his 'ideological opponent.'His stance against the BJP stems from opposition to central policies such as NEET, the three-language formula, and the Citizenship Amendment Act. His criticism of the DMK, meanwhile, has focused on governance failures, corruption, women’s safety, and custodial deaths. At the Madurai rally on August 21, he even mocked DMK chief Stalin by calling him an 'uncle.'It was also at this Madurai event — TVK’s second state conference — that he finally targeted the AIADMK, criticising its alliance with the BJP.

That triggered speculation he had been “sparing” the party until then, especially since his Iyakkam had backed it in the 2011 polls.Kannan dismisses such theories. "The sharper focus on the DMK stems from its position as the ruling party, while the AIADMK has already spent five years in opposition," he argues.Vijay and AIADMK: The alliance that wasn'tAIADMK general secretary and former chief minister Edappadi K Palaniswami has repeatedly projected his party as the “only force” capable of defeating the DMK. Earlier this year, reports indicated that the AIADMK explored a possible alliance with Vijay, but talks collapsed over TVK’s demands — pushing Palaniswami back into the BJP’s fold.According to Kannan, it is a 'missed opportunity' for Vijay: “Had he tied up with AIADMK, Vijay could have become as significant in Tamil Nadu as Pawan Kalyan in Andhra Pradesh. He might have placed colleagues in the government if the alliance won, and then contested the next elections on his own.”This assertion is somewhat backed by the trajectory of the late actor-politician Vijayakanth’s Desiya Murpokku Dravida Kazhagam (DMDK).

Founded in 2005, the DMDK made its electoral debut in the 2006 assembly polls, contesting all 234 seats but winning only one. Five years later, its fortunes spectacularly flipped. Aligned with the AIADMK in 2011, the DMDK shocked the state by bagging 29 seats — more than the DMK’s 23 — and becoming the main opposition. Yet its rise was short-lived: in the next two elections, after shifting alliances, the party failed to win a single seat.So, could the AIADMK and Vijay still come together? “An alliance with the DMK is ruled out as Vijay has already positioned them as his political adversary,” notes political analyst Dr Sumanth C Raman. “The AIADMK had waited for him, though talks failed as his demands were reportedly too high.” Still, Raman adds, some form of future tie-up cannot be ruled out.AIADMK–BJP: Partners at oddsAfter breaking ties with the BJP in 2023, the AIADMK returned to the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) in April this year - a result of both sides drawing blanks in Tamil Nadu in the 2024 Lok Sabha polls.

But the reunion remains strained. Palaniswami insists the AIADMK will form a single-party government, contradicting the BJP’s line that the NDA would oust the DMK.Sreeram points out that both parties need each other, noting that Tamil Nadu has barely seen a coalition government. “What if a party has to seek support to form a government? All this would be decided only after the results. Before that, it’s futile to say such things,” he said. He also cautioned that replacing state BJP chief Annamalai to facilitate the reunion could push a section of BJP voters away from it. The former IPS officer had been critical of the tie-up, arguing the party should grow on its own in Tamil Nadu.DMK vs AIADMK: Which side may benefit more from Vijay’s backing?In the 2021 Tamil Nadu assembly elections, the DMK-led bloc swept to power with 159 seats and a 46 per cent vote share. The DMK alone accounted for 133 of these wins. The NDA, by comparison, managed a 40 per cent vote share for the remaining 75 seats, 66 of them taken by the AIADMK.Still, several constituencies were decided by wafer-thin margins — in some cases, just a few hundred votes (the win margin was below 1,000 in seven seats, including as low as 137). Which side could tip such seats if Vijay and TVK were to join them?"With Vijay not joining hands with the AIADMK, the DMK has been handed the election on a platter. He will only split votes and weaken the opposition. In fact, he is also drawing support away from the Naam Tamilar Katchi, making TVK the chief beneficiary,” Kannan said, stressing that the DMK ‘doesn’t need’ Vijay.Raman too opines the DMK could benefit if TVK contests independently: “Without being part of a large alliance, it is going to be difficult for Vijay, as things stand. If he stands alone, he will split the anti-DMK vote and help it win the election.”How high can Vijay-TVK go?Experts agree there is anti-incumbency against the DMK, but the NDA (and AIADMK's) internal divisions and Vijay’s status as a political newcomer weaken the momentum for change.

The key question is whether he can emerge as a kingmaker—or even as a credible third force—similar to the brief role once played by Vijayakanth.Kannan estimates that, leveraging his massive fan base, TVK could secure a 5–10 per cent vote share, an impressive feat for a debutant. Sreeram, meanwhile, offers a note of caution.“First-time voters, Dalits, minorities (particularly Christian as Vijay's father is a Christian), and women form the core of Vijay’s support. Yet, the absence of seasoned candidates makes it uncertain whether this backing would translate into votes and seats,” he said. One thing is for sure: the entry of 'Thalapathy' ensures Tamil Nadu’s elections will be watched not just for the winner, but for how the superstar reshapes the state’s enduring power balance.