War In Iran Threatens Global Food Security, Report Says These Nations Are At Risk Of Instability

Last Updated:March 08, 2026, 19:41 IST

The US-Israel and Iran conflict has intensified, disrupting energy infrastructure and causing fertilizer shortages, which may lead to a strain on global food production.

As the war continues in the Middle East, there is a high possibility of people around the globe to face food price inflation while those is most vulnerable countries may even face hunger.

The war between the US-Israel and Iran entered its ninth day, with high-intensity strikes spreading across the Middle East. The situation remains volatile, with reports of high-intensity Israeli airstrikes emerging from multiple sites in Iran and Lebanon.

According to DowJones, the conflict is likely to place renewed strain on global food supply chains partly because of the knock-on impacts of Iranian attacks on energy infrastructure, which include increasing the cost of transporting and distributing food.

It is expected that the implications for global food security would almost certainly extend far beyond the Middle East.

Energy Price Surges And Fertiliser Shortages

The Persian Gulf is a dominant source of fertilizer. According to Belga News and the BBC, European gas prices reportedly spiked by 40% following Qatar LNG production halted, while Brent Crude rose to $80 a barrel, raising diesel and transport costs.

“It’s bad — there’s no other way of putting it. The world is highly reliant on fertilizer and associated raw materials supplied out of that region," New York Times quoted Chris Lawson, vice president of market intelligence and prices at CRU Group, a London-based research and data firm focused on commodities.

The sustained insecurity in the Strait of Hormuz may soon constrain the movement of grain and fertiliser, raising freight and insurance costs and tightening effective shipping capacity.

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According to NYT, five primary fertilizer exporters — Iran, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain — rely heavily on the Strait of Hormuz to export their wares. Collectively they supply more than one-third of the world’s trade in urea, the dominant form of nitrogen fertilizer, and nearly one-fourth of another type, ammonia, according to data by the International Fertilizer Association, a trade group based in London.

One major source of urea, QatarEnergy, halted production last week when it lost access to natural gas after strikes from Iranian drones and missiles.

According to a report by DowJones, 15 countries have been identified that are most likely to experience heightened political and social instability should a high-intensity conflict persist in the Middle East. These include Afghanistan, Ethiopia, Iraq, Kenya, Libya, Mali, Myanmar, Nigeria and Pakistan.

Also Read: Gulf Giants Cut Output, Hormuz Blocked: West Asia War Pushes Oil Market Into Deeper Turmoil

India is unlikely to face a urea shortage in the short term, with officials saying there is sufficient supply available for the upcoming Kharif season. Authorities are also taking steps to address any potential disruptions that could arise if the ongoing war continues for an extended period.

“We have sufficient urea available. We hope that things (the war situation) will probably be resolved within a month. We have enough urea for our Kharif season and do not expect any problems," an official from a fertiliser supplying company told the Economic Times.

However, the official cautioned that a prolonged conflict could create challenges later in the year.

“If the situation continues for the next six months, problems may arise. It could affect the next crop season, the Rabi season, and appropriate steps are being taken to address it," the official added.

Also Read: Bangladeshis Wait For Hours In Long Queues As West Asia Conflict Raises Fears Of Fuel Crisis

Meanwhile, increased diesel and transport costs for major exporters such as Brazil and the US are also likely to push up grain export prices.

“The long-term solution is not to be dependent on fertilizer that has to be trafficked through Strait of Hormuz," said Raj Patel, a political economist and expert in sustainable food at the University of Texas at Austin. “We have become rather hooked on these imports."

New York Times quoted him saying that one potential solution is found in India and Brazil, where governments have encouraged farmers to slash their application of imported fertilizers by diversifying their crops and adding locally available nutrients to soils.

“More sustainable production is the long-term switch we need," he said.

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