What Is El Nino And How This Climate Pattern Disrupts Weather Across The World?

Last Updated:April 13, 2026, 18:26 IST

El Nino is a natural climate pattern that begins in the Pacific Ocean when surface waters in its central and eastern parts become unusually warm.

India is heading into a crucial monsoon season with early warnings of weaker-than-normal rainfall, as the possibility of El Nino conditions returns.

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has forecast that the southwest monsoon this year is likely to be below normal at around 92% of the long period average, raising concerns for farmers who depend heavily on seasonal rains for crops like rice, maize and pulses.

Officials have said that while early monsoon months may not see a sharp shortfall, the second half of the season could be more affected if El Nino strengthens after July. The warning comes as global climate agencies also track changing ocean conditions that could influence rainfall patterns across continents.

ALSO READ: Possible ‘Super El Niño’ Could Disrupt India’s Monsoon, Here’s What You Need To Know

What Is El Nino?

El Nino is a natural climate pattern that begins in the Pacific Ocean when surface waters in its central and eastern parts become unusually warm. This warming changes normal wind patterns, air pressure and rainfall across the globe.

Under normal conditions, trade winds blow from east to west across the Pacific, pushing warm water towards Asia and Australia. But during El Nino, these winds weaken or reverse, allowing warm water to move back towards South America.

This shift disturbs the balance between the ocean and atmosphere, which then affects weather systems worldwide.

ALSO READ: El Nino Is Brewing Again: Should India Brace For A Deficient Monsoon In 2026?

How Does El Nino Affect Global Weather?

El Nino does not remain limited to the Pacific region. Because oceans and atmosphere are closely linked, even small changes can have global effects.

It can alter rainfall patterns, causing floods in some regions and droughts in others. It may also change temperature patterns, making some areas hotter or colder than usual. In South Asia, including India, it often disrupts monsoon systems, which are vital for agriculture and water supply.

It also affects the formation of cyclones, hurricanes and other storm systems across oceans, sometimes changing their frequency and intensity.

Global impacts And Climate Link

El Nino events are linked to major climate disruptions worldwide. They can cause droughts in Australia, parts of Africa and Southeast Asia, while bringing heavy rains and flooding to parts of South America. In India, weaker monsoons during El Nino years can hit rural incomes and food production.

The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has noted that recent El Nino conditions have also contributed to record global temperatures. The 2023-24 event was among the strongest on record and played a role in making 2024 one of the hottest years globally.

Experts also warn that natural climate cycles like El Nino are now occurring against the backdrop of long-term human-driven warming, which is increasing the intensity of extreme weather events.

According to UN climate projections, there is a shifting probability of El Nino developing in the coming months, following a weak La Nina phase. While neutral conditions remain most likely in the short term, the risk of El Nino could rise later in the year.

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