Women, welfare and the ‘phoenix’ CM: How Nitish-led NDA crushed MGB in Bihar - 10 key takeaways

NEW DELHI: Bihar’s 2025 assembly verdict has delivered one of the most decisive mandates in recent years, with the NDA dismantling the Mahagathbandhan’s challenge through a potent mix of women-centric welfare, caste recalibration, and tight organisational control.

The NDA tally is hovering around the 200-seat mark, driven by a strong BJP performance, a resurgent JD(U), and allies such as LJP (RV) and HAM (S). The sweep reflects the combined force of Nitish Kumar’s “phoenix” comeback, PM Modi’s enduring appeal, and Chirag Paswan’s breakout strike rate.From the unprecedented surge of women voters to the collapse of dynastic and new-age challengers, the results offer a sharp snapshot of where Bihar’s politics stands—and where it is headed.

Here are the 10 key takeaways:1. Nitish the ‘Phoenix’: Health scares and ‘paltu ram’ tag don’t dent mandateWhat was billed as a litmus test of Nitish Kumar’s relevance has instead revived his image as Bihar’s “Phoenix”—a leader who repeatedly returns from political near-death. Despite the opposition hammering him as paltu ram (frequent turncoat), voters prioritised his record on roads, electricity, schools, security, and women-focused schemes over alliance switches.Attempts to make his health an election issue failed. His extensive campaigning and long-term delivery—pensions, infrastructure, and ₹10,000 assistance to nearly one crore women—reassured voters.

The taunting slogan, “25 se 30, phir se Nitish,” now reads as an endorsement of continuity.2. Modi magic continues; Lok Sabha 2024 was an aberrationPM Modi’s electoral draw remains intact. His rallies and targeted welfare messaging helped consolidate floating voters. Seen in sequence, Lok Sabha 2024 now appears an aberration: since then, the NDA has swept or retained Haryana, Maharashtra, and Delhi. Bihar becomes another major win, with only J&K and Jharkhand as outliers.3. LJP(RV)’s breakout strike rate boosts Chirag Paswan’s bargaining powerChirag Paswan delivered one of the NDA’s strongest strike rates, converting seat allocations into wins in difficult constituencies. His grip over Paswan/Dalit voters adds a 5–6% swing in key seats. With 22 wins out of 29, LJP(RV) now commands greater bargaining power in government formation and portfolio distribution.4. Prashant Kishor and Jan Suraaj: The brutal barrier for new entrantsThe election exposed the limits of star strategists becoming mass politicians. Despite hype, Jan Suraaj failed to make electoral impact beyond acting as a spoiler in a few seats.

Kishor now faces a choice: years of grassroots cadre-building or a return to consultancy. Bihar 2025 has punctured the myth and revealed the scoreboard.5. Dynasts and regional parties hit their ceilingTejashwi Yadav, though the natural Opposition leader, couldn’t break through caste constraints or the NDA’s welfare firewall. Smaller regional outfits were squeezed out altogether. The message is clear: identity alone doesn’t win; parties need welfare credibility, economic messaging, or cross-caste coalitions.6. Congress and INDIA bloc at their weakestThe verdict reflects Opposition weakness as much as NDA strength. RJD has shrunk from its 2015 peak, Congress is down to single digits, and Left parties remain marginal. The INDIA bloc has steadily unravelled since the 2024 Lok Sabha polls, entering Bihar with tactical, not strategic, unity. The NDA’s organisational discipline outmatched the Opposition’s incoherence.7. Freebies are here to stay—and they blunt anti-incumbencyWelfare defined this election. Voters preferred schemes they already experienced—DBT transfers, pensions, women-focused support—over fresh promises.

Bihar 2025 confirms a key trend: welfare credibility, not avoidance of freebies, wins elections. Anti-incumbency weakened as welfare felt stable and reliable.8. Women can win you electionsA record turnout—with 5 lakh more women voting than men—proved decisive. Nitish’s long-term women-centric policies and the Rs 10,000 direct assistance scheme paid off. Coupled with national welfare narratives, this created a powerful female vote bank.

The lesson for all parties: women are not a symbolic category—they are a decisive constituency.9. SIR controversy fizzled on the groundDespite months of political noise over the Special Intensive Revision (SIR) of voter rolls and allegations of mass deletions, the issue didn’t translate into electoral anger. Record turnout and smooth voting in most areas show that the SIR narrative was louder in politics than in lived experience.10. Youth vote didn’t disrupt the status quoEven with high youth turnout and frustration over unemployment, young voters didn’t consolidate behind new forces like Jan Suraaj.

Many opted for stability or family/community voting patterns. The long-predicted generational shift remains delayed.11. Coalition politics isn’t dead - it’s evolvingCoalitions remain central, but they now operate on utility and arithmetic, not ideology. The NDA held together despite internal friction because members valued strategic discipline. The INDIA bloc, meanwhile, looked brittle and ad hoc. Coalitions now demand operational coherence, not just shared enemies.Between the lines: What Bihar really told usThe verdict underscores that modern Indian politics is driven by a blend of delivery and identity. In Bihar, controlling welfare channels, mobilising women voters, and carefully assembling caste coalitions proved far more decisive than slogans alone.For the Opposition, the message is blunt: without credible governance models and cohesive alliances, even traditional strongholds will slip away.(With inputs from agencies)