World on track to dangerous warming level as emissions reach a record high, India reports highest absolute increase

NEW DELHI: The global greenhouse gas (GHG) emission increased by 2.3% in 2024, compared to the previous year, to reach a record high of 57.7 gigatons of CO2 equivalent, with India reporting the highest absolute increase in emissions followed by China, Russia, Indonesia and the US, showed a UN report released on Tuesday.

It warned the world is “heading for a serious escalation of climate risks and damages”.It said that the global average temperature is projected to rise 2.3-2.5 degree Celsius by the end of the century above pre-industrial levels (1850-1900) even if the climate actions are fully implemented under the new mitigation goals of the countries amid rising carbon emissions. It means the new climate pledges are completely off target and fall short on the warming limit goal.The absolute increase in emissions excludes the emission caused by change in land use and forest cover due uncertainties in estimates of net emission from such factors. It primarily calculates emissions of fossil CO2, methane, nitrous oxide and fluorinated gases.Currently, the six largest emitters in terms of total GHG emissions are China, the US, India, EU, Russia and Indonesia. The report noted that among the big emitters, the European Union was the only one to decrease emissions in 2024.

“The 2.3% increase in total GHG emissions (globally in 2024) from 2023 levels is high compared with the 2022–2023 increase of 1.6%. It is more than four times higher than the annual average growth rate in the 2010s (0.6% per year), and comparable to the emissions growth in the 2000s (on average 2.2% per year),” said the report.In terms of growth rate, Indonesia showed the highest increase (4.6%) followed by India (3.6%).

Emissions growth in China (0.5% in 2024) was lower than the previous year.The report underlined that the contributions by current, per capita and historic emissions differ across the high emitters and world regions. Per capita GHG emissions are above the world average of 6.4 tons of CO2 equivalent (tCO2e) in the US, Russia, China and EU, and remain significantly below it in Indonesia and India.Flagging how the growing emission and the countries' low mitigation targets put the Paris Agreement threshold of 1.5 degree C of warming at risk in the short-term (within the next decade), the report - UNEP Emissions Gap Report 2025 - noted that the rise will go up to 2.8 degree Celsius in the business-as-usual scenario under the ongoing policies.Though the current projected rise of 2.3-2.5 degree C is an improvement over the previous year’s projection of 2.6-2.8 degree C rise, the report noted that the updated pledges are not adequate to get the desired result of keeping the global warming either within 1.5 degree C or 2 degree C. Since the adoption of the Paris Agreement 10 years ago, temperature rise predictions have, however, fallen from 3-3.5 degree C — a clear sign that the world can keep it further down with more ambitious emission reduction targets.The report said that the reductions to annual emissions of 35% and 55%, compared with 2019 levels, are needed by 2035 to align with the Paris Agreement 2 degree C and 1.5 degree C pathways, respectively.“While national climate plans have delivered some progress, it is nowhere near fast enough, which is why we still need unprecedented emissions cuts in an increasingly tight window, with an increasingly challenging geopolitical backdrop,” said Inger Andersen, executive director, UNEP.The report comes as a warning signal to governments ahead of the UN climate conference (COP30), scheduled to be held in Belem, Brazil during Nov 10-21.Despite the Paris Agreement requirement to submit new climate action targets - called Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) - by February, only 64 countries covering 63% of global GHG emissions had submitted or announced new NDCs by the cut-off date of Sept 30.

India is expected to submit its target for 2035 in the next few days.“Nations have had three attempts to deliver promises made under the Paris Agreement, and each time they have landed off target,” said Andersen.The report noted that though NDCs have, overall, become modestly more robust over time, it’s at nowhere near the pace needed, and the new NDCs have done little to accelerate progress.“In addition to the lack of progress in pledges, a huge implementation gap remains, with countries not on track to meet their 2030 NDCs, let alone new 2035 targets,” it said.