3 Weeks Of US-Israel-Iran War: The Link Between Strait Of Hormuz, Fertilisers & Global Food Security

Last Updated:March 18, 2026, 19:16 IST

How does the Iran war affect fertiliser supplies, prices and food security? How has it impacted India?

As the US-Israel war against Iran enters its third week, analysts warn it is severely disrupting fertiliser markets and endangering food security for developing countries in the near term.

Here is how the conflict and the shutting of the Strait of Hormuz affecting fertiliser costs, trade flows and output.

WHY IS THE HORMUZ STRAIT KEY FOR FERTILISER SUPPLY?

Fertiliser production is energy-intensive, relying heavily on natural gas as a feedstock, with energy making up as much as 70% of production costs.

As a result, much of the world’s fertiliser is made in the Middle East, with one-third of global trade in it passing through the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow shipping route along Iran’s coast that has largely been shut since the conflict began.

Some 20% of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas also transits the Strait, and its near closure, combined with missile and drone strikes across the Gulf, have forced regional energy facilities to halt output. That has, in turn, shut fertiliser plants in the Gulf and beyond, just as farmers across the Northern Hemisphere prepare for spring planting, leaving little margin for delays, according to a Reuters report.

WHY ARE FERTILISERS CRITICAL FOR FOOD SECURITY?

About half the world’s food is grown using fertiliser, so prolonged supply disruptions would have major implications for food availability, Argus analyst Marina Simonova told Reuters.

In some countries, fertilisers account for up to 50% of the cost of grain production, and the UN’s food agency has warned that many low income countries were already suffering from food insecurity prior to the war.

The most important fertilisers near term are nitrogen-based products like urea because, by and large, if a farmer doesn’t apply them for one season, yields will likely be hit. This is less so the case with other key products, like those based on phosphate and potassium.

The global market for urea was already struggling with tight supplies prior to the current conflict, with Europe forced to cut output due to the loss of cheap Russian gas and China restricting fertiliser exports including urea in order to ensure domestic supplies.

WHICH FERTILISER PLANTS HAVE HALTED OR CUT OUTPUT? HOW HAS IT IMPACTED INDIA?

Qatar Energy has halted output at the world’s largest urea plant after shutting down gas output following attacks on its LNG facilities.

In India, a massive global urea market, three urea plants have cut output as LNG supplies from Qatar have plummeted.

India, home to nearly a fifth of the world’s population, buys more than 40% of its urea and phosphatic fertilisers from the Middle East, and recently agreed to buy 1.3 million tons of urea, some of which might not arrive on time.

Bangladesh has shut four of its five fertiliser factories, while Australia’s Wesfarmers has warned of possible shipment delays, including for urea.

Egypt, which supplies 8% of globally traded urea, could struggle to produce nitrogen fertiliser after Israel declared force majeure on gas exports to the country, Scotiabank and Rabobank analysts say.

Brazil is almost 100% reliant on urea imports, nearly half of which transits the Strait of Hormuz.

In the US, farmers are reporting empty shop shelves, with the country about 25% short of fertiliser supplies for this time of year.

Globally, urea exports are set to fall to about 1.5 million metric tons in March, compared to 3.5 million without China’s supplies, or 4.5 to 5 million with China, according to Scotiabank.

HOW HAS THE CONFLICT IMPACTED FERTILISER PRICES?

Urea export prices in the Middle East have jumped about 40% to just above $700 per metric ton last Friday from just under $500 before the war, according to Argus.

In the US, fertiliser prices have surged as much as 32% since the conflict began.

Analysts say prices for nitrogen-based fertilisers like urea could roughly double if the war drags on.

Given the Middle East’s dominant market share, no producer can quickly make up for the lost supply, according to Chris Lawson, analyst at CRU.

Russia, the world’s largest fertiliser exporter, is facing supply disruptions due to Ukraine drone strikes, while China, despite ample capacity, is restricting exports, he said.

KEY FAQs

How has the war impacted global fertiliser supplies?

Approximately 30% of global fertiliser trade transits through the Strait of Hormuz, which has seen shipping activity decline by over 70% since the conflict began on February 28. Fertiliser manufacturing is highly energy-intensive; natural gas accounts for up to 70–80% of urea production costs. Attacks on regional energy infrastructure, such as Qatar’s LNG facilities, have forced major plants to halt or cut output. The region is a primary source of key ingredients like sulphur (45% of global trade), ammonia, and phosphates, all of which are currently stranded or delayed.

What is the effect on fertiliser prices?

Global urea prices jumped 19–26% within the first week of the conflict. Middle East urea export prices reached over $700 per metric ton by mid-March, up from under $500 pre-war. In the United States, fertiliser prices have surged by as much as 32% since the conflict began. In India, prices for key soil nutrients rose by 20–30% in just a few days. Increased crude oil prices (surpassing $100 per barrel) have pushed up freight, insurance, and transportation costs, further inflating the final price for farmers.

How does this threaten global food security?

Fertiliser is essential for roughly half of global food production. If farmers reduce application due to high costs or lack of supply, it could result in millions of tonnes of lost staple crops like wheat, rice, and maize. Higher input costs (energy and fertiliser) lead to higher retail food prices, particularly in import-dependent regions like Sub-Saharan Africa and Southeast Asia. The conflict coincides with critical spring planting windows in the Northern Hemisphere and stocking periods for the June monsoon season in India, leaving no margin for shipping delays, according to news reports.

With CNN, agency inputs

News explainers 3 Weeks Of US-Israel-Iran War: The Link Between Strait Of Hormuz, Fertilisers & Global Food Security Explained

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