42% rain deficit: This June is set to be India’s 3rd driest in 100 years

NEW DELHI: This month is set to end as the third driest June India has seen in last 100 years. With just a day to go in the month, the countrywide rainfall deficit stands at 42%, indicating that El Niño may already be playing a role in depressing the monsoon in India.

The average rainfall recorded across the country in June so far stands at 92.2mm, against a normal of 157.7mm. Assuming there’s good rainfall on Tuesday — the month’s last day — June is likely to record around 100mm of rain in all. In the past 100 years (1927-2026), only two years have seen lower overall rainfall in June — 2009 (87.5mm) and 2014 (92.1mm), both within the past 20 years. On the brighter side, as per IMD’s projections, the first week of July is expected to bring better and well-distributed rains in most parts of the country, particularly central India, the region with the highest monsoon deficit so far.Central India has a massive rainfall deficit of 54% so far this month, followed by east & northeast at 41%, northwest at 30% and south 28%. It’s rare for all four regions of the country to record such big rain shortfalls, which could be pointing to El Niño already beginning to impact India’s monsoon. As per an update released last week by US agency International Research Institute for Climate and Society, the El Niño was already close to reaching moderate strength amid rapid warming in the equatorial Pacific.

The El Niño is projected to keep strengthening over the next few months. This is significant because a stronger event increases the chances of impact on India’s monsoon. El Niño is a periodic warming of surface waters in the east and central Pacific, with concurrent changes in wind flows that affect weather across the globe, including having an adverse impact on the Indian summer monsoon. After a weak onset over Kerala on June 4, monsoon has failed to pick up so far. During June, daily rainfall across the country has exceeded normal on just a single day so far