Andhra Pradesh and the next El Niño challenge

Much before El Niño formed over the Pacific Ocean, Andhra Pradesh got a bitter taste of what was to come. In May, the State experienced oppressive heat, unending warm nights, and intense heatwaves. Cities and towns wore a deserted look as daytime temperatures remained above 44°C for nine consecutive days, with the season’s highest touching 48.3°C.

In addition to bringing back unpleasant memories of the previous El Niño events in the State, the record-breaking temperatures heralded a disturbing weather pattern, marked by scanty rainfall and more heatwaves. Even on July 12, 2026, the India Meteorological Department (IMD), Amaravati, issued heatwave alerts for the State.

This is the third time in 10 years that the State’s preparedness is being put to the test, the first two being 2015 and 2023. In 2015, which witnessed a strong El Niño event, heatwaves killed at least 2,300 people in the country, with Andhra Pradesh alone accounting for 1,369 deaths, forcing the government to form the Andhra Pradesh State Disaster Management Authority (APSDMA).

Weather experts say that whenever sea surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean rise beyond 2°C, meteorologists declare it a “very strong” El Niño event. Between 1951 and 2025, this threshold was crossed four times — 1972,1982, 2015 and 2023 — according to IMD experts.

Meteorologists believe there is a high likelihood of another strong El Niño event this year.

A testing monsoon

For Andhra Pradesh, an overall below-normal monsoon has been forecast, with isolated areas showing the probability of receiving normal or above-normal rainfall, which indicates the likelihood of the formation of low-pressure systems in the Bay of Bengal. But this is only a possibility.

The State receives most of its rainfall during the Southwest monsoon, particularly in August and September, when El Niño is expected to gain strength. While the State received about normal rainfall in June, as predicted, July has begun on a slightly dry note.

According to the Directorate of Economics and Statistics, the State received 86.2 mm of rainfall against the normal 149.1 mm between June 1 and July 11, recording a deficit of 42.2%. Except for two districts that reported normal rainfall, 26 of the 28 districts have reported either deficient or largely deficient rainfall, presenting a bleak picture.

The State’s long-period average annual rainfall is 858 mm, but this year’s total is projected at 690 mm, which means a deviation of around 20%, which, again, is double the deviations recorded in the State in recent El Niño years. According to the APSDMA, negative deviations in recent El Niño years ranged between 4% and 11%.

Mitigating the impact

The immediate impact of deficit rainfall is on the farming community and agricultural activities. In 2023, 54 mandals were declared drought-hit, while at least 6.96 lakh farmers suffered losses in 103 of the State’s 688 mandals.

The government has begun preparations. At a review meeting, Andhra Pradesh Home and Disaster Management Minister V. Anitha stressed the need to disseminate weather information down to the village level to minimise crop losses. But, there is a challenge: the agricultural department issues alerts and advisories to farmers based on the agroclimatic zones. Academicians have flagged the haphazard clubbing of areas with zones of different characteristics. This can lead to a mismatch in the advisory being given and the ground reality of farmers. The government’s objective cannot be achieved unless the structural issues are addressed.

The agricultural department has begun alerting farmers about shifting to drought-hardy crops in rain-fed areas of Rayalaseema to tide over the crisis. But questions have also been raised about the willingness of farmers to shift to these crops.

The State appears to have learnt from the lessons of 2015 by significantly reducing heatstroke deaths. In 2023, the number of deaths recorded had drastically come down to three. But ensuring that timely weather advisories reach farmers remains a weak link.

It is to be seen whether the government’s preparedness remains only on paper or aids in mitigating the impact of the global event.