Below-normal monsoon no guarantee against floods, landslides in Himalayas: ICIMOD

Dehradun: A below-normal monsoon this year does not necessarily mean lower flood risk or a safer rainy season, scientists at International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD) on Wednesday warned.

They said erratic rainfall patterns and rising temperatures increase the threat of flash floods, landslides and glacial hazards across the Hindu Kush Himalaya (HKH).The warning, issued by the International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD), comes as deadly floods and cloudburst-triggered disasters continue to affect parts of India and Pakistan, including localised flooding in Arunachal Pradesh and Pakistan’s Gilgit-Baltistan region.According to the HKH Monsoon Outlook 2026, active El Nino conditions are expected to suppress overall seasonal rainfall across much of South Asia. However, experts said seasonal averages can mask dangerous short-term and localised weather anomalies. “The biggest misunderstanding is that less seasonal rainfall means lower flood risk. Seasonal forecasts describe average conditions over several months, not what happens in a single valley.

Under El Nino, long dry spells can be interrupted by intense local storms that trigger devastating flash floods and landslides,” said Saswata Sanyal, disaster risk reduction specialist at ICIMOD.Scientists said this “dual reality” is likely to define the 2026 monsoon. Short-lived weather systems can temporarily override the broader El Nino pattern, triggering intense localised cloudbursts. This leaves communities facing a volatile mix of prolonged dry spells that threaten agriculture and sudden extreme rainfall events that endanger lives and infrastructure.Rising temperatures are expected to add to the risks across major glacier-fed river basins, including the Indus, Ganga and Brahmaputra. Warmer conditions can accelerate snow and glacier melt, pushing additional water into river systems while also destabilising mountain slopes and moraine-dammed lakes.“The recent flooding in Pakistan’s Thore Valley and Arunachal Pradesh in India demonstrates that hazards in the HKH are no longer occurring in isolation.

Heavy rainfall, glacier melt, unstable slopes and fast-rising rivers can interact to create cascading disasters. Preparedness must reflect these compound risks rather than treating each hazard separately,” said Manish Shrestha, hydrologist at ICIMOD.With several weeks of the monsoon season remaining, experts urged regional govts to revise disaster management strategies and prepare for drought, heat stress, landslides and glacial floods simultaneously, rather than treating them as separate threats.ICIMOD also called for heightened monitoring and protective measures for vulnerable settlements along riverbanks, steep mountain slopes and rapidly expanding urban centres across Nepal, northern India and northeastern India.