BJP vs Prashant Kishor: Why Bankipur is more than just a bypoll in Bihar

The upcoming Bankipur Assembly by-election is shaping up to be one of Bihar's most closely watched political contests, with the BJP and Jan Suraaj preparing for a direct showdown in a constituency long considered a saffron stronghold. The focus of the contest has shifted to whether Jan Suraaj founder Prashant Kishor will enter the fray and who the BJP will field to defend the seat vacated by Nitin Nabin after he became the party's national president.

While Jan Suraaj is yet to formally announce its candidate, it is widely expected that Kishor will contest the bypoll. He has already announced his willingness to fight to wrest the BJP's strong bastion, calling it a referendum on the Samrat Choudhary-led NDA government. The party is scheduled to take a final decision at its core committee meeting on July 5, with an official announcement likely the same day.

If Kishor enters the fray, the contest is expected to acquire significance beyond a routine Assembly bypoll. The election is being viewed as a test of Jan Suraaj's political strength and the BJP's hold over one of its strongest urban constituencies. Following Jan Suraaj's poor performance in the 2025 Bihar Assembly election, Kishor is looking to revive the party through the Bankipur bypoll.

The key question now is who the BJP will field against Kishor.

Bankipur has remained a BJP stronghold for more than four decades, with the party winning the seat continuously for many years. The bypoll was necessitated after Nitin Nabin became the BJP's national president and vacated the constituency. The BJP is unlikely to want to lose what is considered a prestigious seat.

A completely urban Assembly constituency, Bankipur has a sizeable population of educated, middle-class and business-community voters. The Kayastha community is considered influential in the seat. Besides Kayasthas, Vaishyas, Bhumihars, Brahmins, Rajputs, Yadavs, Kurmis, Extremely Backward Classes, Dalits and Muslim voters also play an important role in determining electoral outcomes. Social equations are therefore expected to play a major role in the BJP's candidate selection.

Among the names being discussed, Neel Ratan Ghosh is considered a leading contender. A senior BJP worker who has been active in the party for many years, Ghosh is regarded as being close to Nitin Nabin. Both families are also said to share close personal ties. Belonging to the Kayastha community, Ghosh is viewed as one of the strongest contenders for the seat.

Another prominent name is Ajay Alok. A doctor by profession, Alok has been active in politics for many years. He contested the 2005 Assembly election from Chainpur in Kaimur district on a Lok Janshakti Party ticket and again fought from the same seat in 2010 on a Bahujan Samaj Party ticket. He joined the Janata Dal (United) in 2012 before later becoming part of the BJP. Also belonging to the Kayastha community, Alok's public-speaking abilities and aggressive television appearances have strengthened his prospects as a possible BJP candidate.

Ashish Sinha is another name under consideration. He is the son of former Bankipur MLA and senior BJP leader Arun Sinha, who represented the constituency several times. However, Arun Sinha was denied a ticket by the BJP in the 2025 Assembly election. There is now speculation that the party could provide another opportunity to his family.

The name of Ritu Jaiswal is also being discussed. She recently joined the BJP after leaving the RJD and belongs to the Vaishya community. If the party decides to field a woman candidate or seeks to send a political message through social representation, she could emerge as a strong contender. The BJP, however, has not officially announced any candidate.

The RJD is not considered particularly strong in Bankipur due to the constituency's urban character. Many observers believe that if Prashant Kishor contests the election, the primary battle will be between the BJP and Jan Suraaj.

Meanwhile, Tej Pratap Yadav's Janshakti Janata Dal has announced its candidate for the seat. The party has fielded social activist Meena Manvi from the Bankipur Assembly constituency.

Attention is now focused on July 5, when Jan Suraaj is expected to announce its final decision on Prashant Kishor's candidature. The BJP is also likely to finalise its nominee soon. The last date for filing nominations is July 13. Voting will be held on July 30, while the counting of votes and declaration of results will take place on August 3. The electoral picture is expected to become clearer once both parties officially announce their candidates.

- Ends