Cong banks on Kerala to end its long season of electoral upsets

NEW DELHI: Congress's fortunes post-2014 have followed a familiar pattern: rout in the national elections and then a long wait for assembly wins. It was an extended barren patch of three and a half years before Congress won a state poll (Himachal) after being routed in the Pulwama-dictated 2019 Lok Sabha contest. This time, Congress is hoping that the wait - which should have ended immediately after the 2024 LS polls with wins in Haryana and then Maharashtra - will finally be over through a win in Kerala. The polls in four states and one UT are an opportunity for Congress to get back into the reckoning, which the party prematurely hoped that the creditable performance in the difficult 2024 polls would ensure. If Kerala-2026 is the essence of Congress's stakes in the coming battles, the principal opposition party is aiming to score significant political points in Assam, TN and Bengal, given that arch-rival BJP has positioned itself as a player across the national geography.

After all, in the years since the Modi-led party turned into a political juggernaut, the Rahul Gandhi-run Congress has chosen to define itself ideologically and in sole opposition to BJP - a process which has also led to greater convergence among foes within the secular camp. For once, Congress ended the longstanding dichotomy of being an ally of CPM at the national level and in Bengal, while being a rival in Kerala - which provided BJP with an easy line of attack.

It decided early to go solo in Bengal. Like many of the 'Congress vs BJP' fields, Assam has turned barren for the former with back-to-back defeats. Communal polarisation, marginalisation via defections and Assam-specific delimitation have made its political task a challenge. Congress belatedly plumped for Gaurav Gogoi, a young face with socio-political pedigree, as its flag-bearer. By all indications, Congress is hoping for a respectable performance that can debunk the growing perception of Assam becoming a one-party turf and keep the party alive in the state. After an unexpected public squabbling with DMK, Congress settled for a minor seat share for the polls. Given that BJP has inserted itself in the AIADMK-led bloc, and speculations are rife that TVK of Tamil superstar, Vijay, can be "influenced" by BJP after elections, Congress is eager that DMK sails through. The post-Jayalalithaa landscape in the state has proved easier for DMK, as witnessed in the 2024 LS polls, but TVK's emergence and the prospect of a three-way split of votes have created uncertainty. Reduced to less than a fringe player in Mamata Banerjee's fief, Bengal Congress is moving with a two-fold target in its solo run. The party believes it cannot go below 2021's pathetic result of zero seats and 3% votes. AICC state in-charge Ghulam Ahmad Mir said the party's vote share should move upwards of 15%.