Cracks In Samajwadi Party? How Rajbhar's Claims Could Alter UP's 2027 Battle

Last Updated:June 17, 2026, 15:03 IST

The timing of Rajbhar's claim has attracted attention because it comes amid turbulence within opposition nationally, with recent upheavals involving the TMC and Shiv Sena (UBT).

The political rumour mill in Uttar Pradesh is working overtime after Uttar Pradesh minister and SBSP chief Om Prakash Rajbhar claimed that a major split was brewing inside the Samajwadi Party (SP). Rajbhar has alleged that SP veteran Ram Gopal Yadav had written to Union Home Minister Amit Shah and suggested that parts of the party were prepared to move towards the BJP camp.

He also linked the alleged unease within SP to old probes related to the mining scam and the Gomti Riverfront project.

“A major split is going to happen in the Samajwadi Party. Ram Gopal Yadav has submitted a letter to Union Home Minister Amit Shah ji. Everyone in Uttar Pradesh knows who the mastermind behind the mining scam and Gomti River Front scam is. As the noose tightens, the SP is getting anxious. Forget Maharashtra and Bengal – the entire SP is sitting ready to join the BJP," Rajbhar posted on X.

“Don’t keep your attention only on Maharashtra; it is UP’s number now. Didn’t you see that Ram Gopal ji has given a letter to Amit Shah ji and told him that these are the names, call them and take them with you, but keep us safe," he said while speaking to ANI.

So far, neither the BJP nor SP has produced evidence supporting the claims, and the allegations remain political assertions rather than established facts. Yet the timing has attracted attention because it comes amid turbulence within opposition politics nationally, with recent upheavals involving the TMC and Shiv Sena (UBT). The bigger, however, question is what a split in SP would mean if it were to happen ahead of the crucial 2027 Uttar Pradesh Assembly election.

SP’s Position In UP Politics

SP is not just another opposition party in Uttar Pradesh. It is the principal challenger to the BJP in India’s most politically important state. In the 2022 Assembly election, SP won 111 of the state’s 403 seats, emerging as the clear opposition force. Together with allies, the SP-led alliance reached 125 seats, while the BJP-led NDA secured 273.

The party’s revival became even more visible in the 2024 Lok Sabha election, where SP emerged as one of the strongest opposition performers nationally, winning 37 parliamentary seats from Uttar Pradesh.

That resurgence transformed Akhilesh Yadav from a regional opposition leader into one of the INDIA bloc’s most important faces.

Is There Any Visible Fault Line Inside SP?

At present, there is no public evidence of a rebellion on the scale seen in Maharashtra’s Shiv Sena split or the NCP split. However, political observers have pointed to several underlying pressures over the past few months. The party remains heavily dependent on the Yadav family leadership. Ticket distribution ahead of 2027 could trigger dissatisfaction among ambitious leaders. SP has had episodes of cross-voting and internal dissent in recent Rajya Sabha elections. The party has also expanded rapidly by inducting leaders from BSP, Congress and smaller regional outfits, creating competing power centres.

The most significant internal challenge for SP is balancing its traditional Yadav-Muslim base with Akhilesh Yadav’s broader PDA (Pichhda, Dalit, Alpsankhyak) social coalition.

If key OBC leaders or influential regional satraps were to leave, the political impact could be disproportionate to their numbers.

What Happens If MPs Leave? The Rajya Sabha Factor

A split would not only affect the 2027 Assembly election but could also alter parliamentary arithmetic. SP is currently among the larger opposition parties in the Rajya Sabha and has a sizeable Upper House presence led by leaders such as Ram Gopal Yadav.

If a substantial group of Rajya Sabha MPs were to break away and either merge with another party or support the NDA, the consequences would include reduced speaking strength for SP in Parliament, weaker opposition coordination within the INDIA bloc, greater ease for the NDA in managing contentious legislation, and loss of committee positions and negotiating leverage.

The Rajya Sabha has increasingly become the chamber where opposition parties try to slow or scrutinise legislation. Any erosion of SP’s numbers would therefore be politically significant.

The Bigger Risk: What If MLAs Leave?

SP’s 111 MLAs make it the backbone of opposition politics in Uttar Pradesh. If a sizeable faction were to defect or split would not just lead to organisational damage, but also lead to negative optics for the SP in an election year.

What Would It Mean for the SP-Congress Alliance?

Perhaps the most immediate political consequence would be on the opposition alliance. The SP-Congress partnership exceeded expectations in the 2024 Lok Sabha election, helping the opposition significantly cut into BJP’s dominance in Uttar Pradesh.

However, Assembly elections are different. Congress remains organisationally weak in UP. It won only two seats in the 2022 Assembly election.

That means Congress needs SP far more than SP needs Congress on the ground. If SP were weakened by a split, Congress would face uncertainty about seat-sharing, negotiations could become more complicated, local leaders may begin hedging bets, and the opposition vote could fragment.

Recent political chatter has also focused on Congress leaders engaging with BSP circles and exploring broader opposition possibilities. While there is no formal Congress-BSP understanding, such outreach has been interpreted by some observers as Congress keeping multiple options open ahead of 2027 rather than relying entirely on SP.

Could Mayawati Become a Bigger Factor?

Any weakening of SP would inevitably benefit another opposition player: the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP).

While BSP has been electorally diminished in recent years, its vote base remains significant in several pockets of the state.

For the BJP, that would be a welcome development.

Why the NDA Would Be Watching Closely

For the BJP-led NDA, the ideal scenario is not necessarily absorbing large numbers of SP leaders. The greater advantage would be a fragmented opposition.

A divided SP would mean reduced pressure on BJP in direct contests, weaker INDIA bloc coordination, easier management of caste coalitions, more difficult seat-sharing negotiations among opposition parties, and potential gains in closely fought constituencies.

The BJP’s strategy in UP has historically benefited when opposition votes are divided among SP, BSP and Congress rather than consolidated behind a single challenger.

At the moment, Om Prakash Rajbhar’s claims remain allegations, not confirmed political developments. No major SP leader has publicly signalled a rebellion, and there is no evidence yet of a Shiv Sena-style or NCP-style split. But the speculation itself highlights a larger reality: Uttar Pradesh’s 2027 election is already taking shape as the most important state contest before the 2029 Lok Sabha battle.

For Akhilesh Yadav, the challenge is not merely defeating the BJP. It is keeping the opposition coalition intact, preventing internal fissures and preserving the momentum generated in 2024.

For the BJP-led NDA, any cracks within SP would be viewed as an opportunity to enter the 2027 contest from a position of greater strength.

And for Congress, the developments are a reminder that its path back to relevance in Uttar Pradesh still runs through the health of its most important ally.

About the Author

Pragati Ratti

Pragati is a News Editor at news18.com. Having headed the Business and Viral sections, Pragati now ideates, writes and edits long-form features and articles on national and global affairs. She ensures...Read More

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