Defence Budget 2026: Incremental power, enduring gaps

IntroductionThe Union Defence Budget 2026–27 arrives at a moment of strategic compression for India. A live Line of Actual Control with China, an unreconstructed Pakistan willing to leverage sub-conventional escalation, and a rapidly militarising Indo-Pacific together impose demands that are simultaneously continental, maritime and technological.

Against this backdrop, the allocation of approximately Rs 7.85 lakh crore for defence—marking a rise of about 15 per cent over the previous year—signals intent, but also exposes the structural constraints that continue to define India’s military preparedness.At just under 2 per cent of GDP, defence spending in 2026 halts the long slide witnessed over the past decade, when India’s defence outlay fell steadily despite expanding threat vectors. In nominal terms, India remains among the world’s top five military spenders. In real terms, however, the budget still reflects the tension between ambition and affordability, particularly when assessed against the scale and pace of Chinese military modernisation.GDP share and the strategic signalMeasured as a proportion of GDP, the defence allocation hovering around 1.9–2 per cent is politically defensible but strategically minimalist. For a country confronting the prospect of a two-front contingency, this level of spending constrains force transformation. By comparison, India spent over 2.5 per cent of GDP during the Kargil and post-Kargil years, enabling rapid accretion of combat power. Today, inflation in defence equipment, coupled with the rising cost of sustainment, erodes purchasing power even as headline allocations grow.

China, by contrast, continues to spend roughly 1.7–1.8 per cent of its GDP on defence, but its vastly larger economic base translates this into an annual outlay exceeding $245 billion—more than three times India’s defence expenditure. Pakistan, meanwhile, allocates a higher percentage of GDP than India to defence, but its absolute spending remains under $10 billion, severely limiting its ability to sustain high-end conventional conflict without external support.Modernisation: What the Budget enablesThe most consequential feature of the Defence Budget 2026 is the rise in capital outlay for modernisation, crossing Rs 2.1 lakh crore. This reflects an explicit acknowledgement that legacy platforms can no longer be stretched indefinitely. For the Indian Air Force, funding continues for additional Rafale fighters, expansion of the Tejas Mk-1A programme, sustainment of the Su-30MKI fleet, and preparatory work for the Advanced Medium Combat Aircraft.

Dedicated allocations for aircraft engines underline the recognition that propulsion remains India’s most critical aerospace vulnerability.For the Indian Navy, capital support advances Project 75(I) submarines with air-independent propulsion, the P-17A stealth destroyer programme, next-generation frigates and fleet support ships. The emphasis on indigenous shipbuilding is not merely industrial policy; it is operational necessity in an Indo-Pacific increasingly shaped by Chinese naval presence.The Army’s modernisation focus remains uneven. While artillery rationalisation through indigenous 155mm systems continues, and funding for air defence, loitering munitions and battlefield surveillance has increased, armour modernisation and infantry equipment replacement remain slow. The Future Infantry Soldier as a System programme and next-generation main battle tank concepts continue to suffer from bureaucratic drag.Sustenance, endurance and operational readinessBeyond headline acquisitions, the budget’s impact on combat effectiveness depends on sustainment. Enhanced allocations for spares, depot-level maintenance and overhaul are critical for improving serviceability rates across air and land platforms. In recent crises, availability—not numbers—has often been the binding constraint.Mobility and endurance, especially in high-altitude theatres, receive incremental attention through funding for logistics infrastructure, specialised vehicles and aviation assets.

However, the absence of a dramatic increase in funding for strategic lift, heavy-lift helicopters and integrated theatre logistics suggests that readiness gains will remain gradual rather than transformational.Technology absorption also remains a challenge. Procurement of hardware has often outpaced investment in joint command-and-control, network-centric warfare and cyber-electromagnetic capabilities.

Without deeper integration across services, India risks fielding modern platforms without achieving modern combat synergy.Capability gaps: Narrowed, not closedThe Defence Budget 2026 narrows certain capability gaps but does not close them. Air power shortages, particularly fighter squadron numbers, remain acute. Submarine force levels are below sanctioned strength. Ground-based air defence and counter-drone capabilities are improving but remain reactive rather than anticipatory.Against Pakistan, these gaps are manageable; India retains decisive conventional superiority across domains. Against China, however, the asymmetry is structural. Beijing’s advantages in missile forces, space-based ISR, cyber warfare and industrial mobilisation cannot be offset by incremental budgetary increases alone. India’s response must therefore combine selective military modernisation with asymmetric deterrence, partnerships and diplomacy.FDI, defence exports and Make in IndiaThe Defence Budget 2026 also strengthens the industrial foundations of military power by reinforcing Make in India and Atmanirbhar Bharat in defence production. India now permits up to 74 per cent FDI under the automatic route and 100 per cent through the government route, and sustained capital spending provides the demand certainty global original equipment manufacturers require before committing technology and capital. As of 2025, cumulative FDI inflows into defence manufacturing have crossed Rs 6,000 crore, with aerospace, electronics and artillery emerging as key attractors.Defence exports underline the shift from import substitution to strategic manufacturing. From Rs 1,521 crore in 2016-17, exports crossed Rs 21,000 crore by 2023-24, with a government target of Rs 50,000 crore by 2029. Indigenous systems such as BrahMos missiles, Akash air defence systems, artillery guns, radars, patrol vessels, loitering munitions and UAVs are now exported to over 85 countries across Southeast Asia, Africa, West Asia and Latin America.

Larger domestic orders under the 2026 budget enable economies of scale, improved quality control and credible lifecycle support—essential for export competitiveness.Industrial multiplier and strategic autonomyBeyond numbers, the budget’s real contribution lies in creating an industrial multiplier. Sustained procurement pipelines allow private industry and MSMEs to invest in tooling, skills and R&D. However, the risk of superficial indigenisation remains.

Unless FDI translates into genuine transfer of technology, deep supply chains and domestic design capability, India risks substituting imports with licensed assembly rather than achieving strategic autonomy.Defence diplomacy will therefore be critical. Export success will depend on aligning military sales with foreign policy objectives, timely clearances, stable offset policies and predictable contracting timelines.

The Defence Budget 2026 provides the economic base; execution will determine strategic payoff.Pakistan and China: A comparative lensPakistan’s defence budget, despite recent increases, remains constrained by economic fragility and IMF oversight. While Islamabad devotes a higher share of GDP to defence than India, its absolute spending and industrial capacity limit sustained modernisation. Its dependence on Chinese platforms further restricts operational autonomy.China presents a fundamentally different challenge. Its defence budget supports integrated civil-military fusion, rapid platform induction and continuous technology iteration. India’s budgetary response, though improved, remains calibrated rather than competitive in scale. This reinforces the need for prioritisation, jointness and selective overmatch rather than numerical parity.The strategic balance sheetThe Defence Budget 2026 is best understood as a stabilising budget rather than a transformative one.

It preserves deterrence, improves readiness at the margins and strengthens industrial capacity. It does not, and cannot within existing fiscal constraints, deliver a decisive leap in military power.For India, the choice is no longer between guns and growth, but between efficient defence spending and strategic vulnerability. The 2026 budget moves in the right direction, but closing the gap between intent and capability will require sustained political will, institutional reform and a multi-year commitment to defence as an instrument of national power rather than merely an annual expenditure head.