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New Delhi: Tensions easing around the Strait of Hormuz have helped calm global energy and aviation markets for now, but for airlines, things aren’t snapping back to normal anytime soon. Fuel logistics, high insurance costs, and lingering airspace restrictions are still a drag on the industry.
Oil shipments through Hormuz are finally picking up after weeks of chaos, with shipping data showing more tankers moving through after recent ceasefire developments. Even so, traffic hasn’t fully returned to what it was before the conflict, and plenty of security concerns remain. Reuters says crossings are still lagging, and ship-tracking points to irregular flows—so it’s not quite business as usual.
This slow restart matters a lot to airlines, who are already taking a hit from high fuel costs and rerouted flights. The International Air Transport Association (IATA) is blunt: disruptions in the Middle East and soaring fuel prices are eating into airline profits. IATA expects that in 2026, global airline net profit will drop to $23 billion—less than half of the $45 billion it projects for 2025. Net margins are also getting squeezed down to just 2%.
Fuel is the biggest pain point. IATA predicts jet fuel will average $152 a barrel in 2026, about 70% more than the previous year. That pushes fuel up to nearly a third of total airline expenses. Hedging might help cushion sudden shocks, but it won’t solve the problem if prices stay high or if refining costs keep climbing.
Operational headaches aren’t over, either. Some airlines are bringing flights back to bits of the Middle East, while others are holding off as safety warnings persist. Reuters reports certain Middle East routes are open again, but plenty of suspensions are still causing headaches for travelers. The EU Aviation Safety Agency is still telling airlines to avoid flying over Iran, Iraq, and Lebanon for now, despite diplomatic progress.
For airline planners, it’s not just about whether the Strait is open diplomatically; the question is whether the entire system is running smoothly. Fuel needs steady refinery production, reliable shipping, available tankers, affordable marine insurance, and working ports. Even if tankers are moving, airlines could face elevated costs until these supply chains are fully back to normal.
These problems are already shaping airline schedules. IATA warns that Gulf carriers are facing major uncertainty after severe airspace disruptions. Airlines in other regions will probably stay profitable but won’t see the kind of results they’d hoped for a few months ago.
Passengers feel the impact too. While some routes are back, airlines are hesitant to add more flights until they can count on stable fuel prices and safer skies. Expect fares to stay high, fewer travel options on some routes, and a slower return to full service.
The ripple effect goes far past ticket prices. Aviation connects tourism, trade, business travel, and cargo. Every time airlines have to fly longer routes or hold back capacity, the extra costs trickle out into supply chains and any business that depends on fast transport.
Governments have to focus on practical solutions, not just comforting words. Getting ships and planes moving safely, making info about airspace clear, smoothing out fuel logistics, and giving transparent risk updates are what’s needed to get aviation really back on its feet. Airlines, meanwhile, have little choice but to keep contingency plans, manage fuel risk, and stay nimble with their routes.
There’s a clear takeaway here: Diplomacy reduces the political risks, but fixing supply chains and aviation networks takes a lot more time. For airlines, peace near Hormuz is just the first step toward recovery—it’s nowhere near the finish line.
English (US) ·