Ebola outbreak surpasses 1,000 cases in Congo: New study warns of high risk of spread to neighbouring countries

When an infectious disease quietly spreads for weeks before anyone notices, the consequences can be devastating. That is exactly what happened in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), where the latest Ebola outbreak has now crossed the 1,000-case mark and spilled into neighbouring Uganda.A new modelling study published in The Lancet Infectious Diseases has raised another concern: there is nearly a 70 per cent chance that the outbreak could reach South Sudan in the coming weeks if strict public health measures are not maintained.The numbers are sobering. As of June 22, 2026, DRC had reported 1,048 laboratory-confirmed Ebola cases and 267 deaths.

The virus remained hidden for nearly six weeks

According to the study, the outbreak began around April 1 but was not officially declared until May 15.

Those six weeks proved crucial.

What exactly is the Bundibugyo strain of Ebola?

The current outbreak is caused by the Bundibugyo strain of the Ebola virus. There is currently no approved vaccine specifically designed for the Bundibugyo strain.This makes public health measures even more important.According to the World Health Organization (WHO), Ebola virus disease can cause severe illness marked by fever, weakness, vomiting, diarrhoea and, in some cases, internal and external bleeding.

Dr (Col) Vijay Dutta, Director of Internal Medicine and Respiratory Services at ISIC Multispeciality Hospital, explained, "Ebola is a serious viral illness that may lead to a high fever, general weakness, muscle pain, vomiting, diarrhoea and, in extreme cases, internal or external bleeding."He added, "It is transmitted person-to-person via the blood, body fluids, or contact with contaminated items that have come into contact with the infected individual.

Ebola is not airborne like other respiratory infections, and is only contagious after symptoms develop."This distinction is important because Ebola does not spread through casual contact or by simply being in the same room as an infected person.

Why are neighbouring countries on high alert?

The modelling study estimated the probability of the virus spreading beyond DRC over the next 12 weeks.The risk of importation was estimated at:Uganda: 94.2 per centSouth Sudan: 69.3 per centRwanda: 8.6 per centBurundi: 2 per centUganda has already confirmed cases linked to the outbreak, including infections among healthcare workers.The findings explain why international agencies have intensified surveillance and border screening efforts.The US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) has issued travel notices for both DRC and Uganda and introduced enhanced screening measures for passengers arriving from affected regions.

Why experts say people should be alert, not alarmed

Every major outbreak brings fear. Ebola's high death rate and dramatic symptoms often trigger panic, even in places thousands of kilometres away from the outbreak zone.But experts say panic is not the answer.Dr Dutta said, "These research papers demonstrate that if public health steps aren't taken early, outbreaks can rapidly escalate because they are difficult to detect and the population moves and comes in contact with other people. But, it should be known that an outbreak in a particular region is not necessarily a global threat. Overall, the risk to countries with good health care and disease surveillance is low."He further noted, "Individuals need to be warned, but not frightened."That message matters. History has repeatedly shown that outbreaks can be controlled when governments move quickly, communities cooperate and healthcare systems remain vigilant.Medical experts consultedThis article includes expert inputs shared with TOI Health by:Dr (Col) Vijay Dutta, Director, Internal Medicine & Respiratory Services, ISIC Multispeciality Hospital.Inputs were used to explain the rapid spread of the Ebola outbreak in the Democratic Republic of Congo, the growing risk of the virus crossing into neighbouring countries, and why health experts are urging stronger surveillance, contact tracing and early public health action to prevent further transmission.