El Niño likely to emerge post-July, say international weather models

1 min readBengaluruMar 14, 2026 05:05 AM IST

The development of El Niño in the second half of 2026 is becoming increasingly likely, say global climate models. The US-based agency National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) confirmed this in its latest El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) bulletin.

“In June-August 2026, El Niño is likely to emerge (about 62 per cent chance). It will persist through at least the end of 2026,” NOAA said. In the past, El Niño years have seen abnormally high temperatures, prolonged heatwaves and below-average rainfall over many parts of the world, including India.

El Niño and La Niña are the two opposite phases of ENSO — an important global ocean–atmospheric phenomenon that influences global weather. ENSO has three phases: El Niño (warm), neutral and La Niña (cool).  If El Niño develops post-July, it will coincide with the peak of India’s southwest monsoon season, which falls between June and September.