Explained | Can India Still Make It To AFC Women's Asian Cup 2026 Quarterfinals?

Last Updated:March 10, 2026, 08:37 IST

India women football team's chances of advancing to the quarterfinals are bleak but not out of the question.

Two defeats in as many games have left India’s chances of advancing to the quarter-finals stage of the ongoing AFC Women’s Asian Cup 2026 in Australia hanging by a thread. India endured a close defeat to Vietnam in their tournament opener, conceding a goal in the stoppage time to lose 1-2. The second contest turned out to be a nightmare as tournament favourites Japan handed India an 11-0 thrashing.

The twin defeats have meant India’s chances, even though mathematically possible, are bleak and not completely in their own hands. They face Chinese Taipei today at the Western Sydney Stadium and are in a must-win situation.

Here’s how India can still qualify.

Defeat Chinese Taipei by two or more goals and pray Japan beat Vietnam

If Japan ends up beating Vietnam, a win by at least two-goal margin will give India the ticket to the knockouts. In this scenario, India will finish second in their Group C.

This begs the question: How can India, with an enormous negative goal difference of -12 can finish ahead of Vietnam? Well, as per the AFC rules, if two or more teams are tied on points, the classification is based on head-to-head records with overall goal difference being the second differentiator.

In the aforementioned scenario, India, Vietnam and Chinese Taipei will finish tied on three points each. However, if India win 2-0, it means they have scored three goals while conceding one against these two opponents to finish second. On the other hand, Vietnam would’ve scored 2 and conceded as many to take the third spot while Chinese Taipei conceded two and scored once to finish with the wooden spoon.

What If Japan Loses And India Wins?

It won’t completely shut doors on India’s chances. If Vietnam end up beating Japan, they will finish second and qualify alongside Japan.

However, if India beat Chinese Taipei, they will take the third spot and still in contention depending on how they are placed in relation to third-placed teams of the other groups.

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