For Iga Swiatek, a bad year is turning into a memorable one

And then, on her weakest surface at a tournament always considered out of her reach even at her very best, she got the unlikely breakthrough. Last month, Swiatek put together a commanding run to win Wimbledon, even completing a historic double bagel in the final. She backed it up with victory at the Cincinnati Open last week amid a tough field at another event where conditions seemed most unlikely to aid her game.

Poland’s Iga Swiatek celebrates after beating Kazakhstan’s Elena Rybakina during their fourth round match of the French Tennis Open, at the Roland-Garros stadium, in Paris, Sunday, June 1 2025. (AP Photo/Christophe Ena)

That is just how Swiatek’s mystery season has unfolded. It began with abject negativity and then almost inexplicably turned around in an instant, making her a heavy tournament favourite heading into the year’s last Major, the US Open, which kicks off on Sunday.

The story behind Swiatek’s year of redemption, going from “the worst experience of her life” following the doping ban to a possible return to the World No.1 rankings, is one of both luck and subtle, fine-tuned improvements.

At Wimbledon, Swiatek was handed a favourable draw but even to take advantage, after such a loss in confidence, change was required. And it was visible, more than in any technical change, in her approach.

Perhaps a result of her new coaching partnership with Belgian Wim Fissette, Swiatek plays with much more restraint when the going gets tough. For a player who is used to overwhelming opponents, she can usually resort to powering her way past tough spots and positions, attempting to go all-out on her groundstrokes. Instead, with greater rally tolerance, better shot selection, and more careful point construction, she has become a more consistent performer when conditions are against her.

Unlike on clay, where the ball comes into her forehand hitting zone smoothly, she has adjusted to take the ball earlier on the faster surfaces like grass and hard courts. She has learned to embrace more variety – from drops and slices to a greater keenness to finish off points at the net. There has been a concerted improvement in the consistency of her serve, finding it when she needs it the most is the key to hanging on in difficult rallies.

An amalgamation of all these marginal changes along with the weapons she already has – from the angles and pace she finds from the back of the court to her elite returning numbers – has created a newfound consistency. She has won 18 of her last 21 matches, reached at least the final of three of her last four tournaments, and has announced her intentions for New York loud and clear. Her game and confidence are peaking at the right to win a seventh Major title and second US Open title. Chase her if you can.

Sabalenka factor

And chief among those doing the chasing will be defending champion and World No.1 Aryna Sabalenka. The Belarusian has opened each of the last six Majors as the player to beat and perhaps would have been the bookmakers’ favourite again if not for Swiatek’s recent winning streak.

But despite being continuously consistent, 2025 has not proved to be her year. She came up short earlier, losing in the final at both the Australian Open and the French Open, and missing out in the semifinal at Wimbledon. A string of recent defeats shows there may be a bit of fatigue settling in for the women’s game’s top performer. And a tricky draw, with potential assignments against in-form Leylah Fernandez and Clara Tauson, and a quarter final against dark horse Elana Rybakina, who beat her in Cincinnati last week.

2023 champion Coco Gauff will unquestionably be the American crowd favourite. The 21-year-old won the second Major of her career at the French Open this year but it has still been a tough season. Nothing says that more like the coaching change she made – trading in coach Mathew Daly for a biomechanics specialist to help her work on her serve – on the eve of the tournament. Being in Swiatek’s half with some potential early banana skins like Donna Vekic and Naomi Osaka littered in her quarter, make it a tricky assignment to repeat her heroics from two years ago.

Last year’s finalist Jessica Pegula will look to make good on another solid season that has not seen her go the extra mile. Fifth seeded teenager Mirra Andreeva will continue to be a threat, so too will be the seventh seeded Italian Jasmine Paolini, who reached the final in Cincinnati.