Gold price prediction today: Where are gold rates headed on August 19, 2025 & the near-term? Here’s the outlook

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Gold price prediction: Gold, in ultra short-term, can test the support around $3307 (MCX Gold October Rs 98,600)/$3290 (Rs 98,100) , but the downside is limited. (AI image)

Gold price prediction today: Gold rates are expected to trade in a range, but the downside is likely to be limited, say experts. Praveen Singh, Senior Fundamental Research Analyst- Currencies and Commodities at Mirae Asset Sharekhan shares his views on gold price outlook and what levels investors should watch out for:Gold Performance:

Spot gold traded between $3405 (August 11) and $3329 (August 14) in the week ending August 15. The metal was down 1.76% for the week, the first weekly loss after two straight weeks of weekly gain.
On August 18, spot gold fell nearly 0.1% to close at $3331 as investors monitored the high-stakes meetings in the US over the Ukraine war.

Trump-Zelensky, Trump-Europe meetings:

The Trump-Zelensky meeting at the Oval Office was concluded overnight. Talks centred around providing security guarantee to Ukraine. Later on, the US president Trump met with seven European leaders (Macron, Starmer, Meloni, Merz, von der Leyen, Stubb, and Rutte) who put forth a ceasefire as the first step towards achieving a lasting peace deal in Ukraine. They also insisted on a security guarantee to Ukraine. Trump has confirmed that there would be a trilateral meeting between Ukraine, Russia and the US. It is being reported that the Kremlin has agreed to the proposed meeting, but the date is not confirmed. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio will work with European allies and non-European countries on security guarantees for Ukraine.

US Dollar Index and yields:

The US Dollar Index swung between 97.62 (August 13) and 99.32 (August 11) in the week ending August 15. It registered its second straight weekly loss as it closed at 97.85 on Friday, down 0.30% for the week. At the time of writing, the Index was seen at 98.20, up around 0.03%% on the day as the Index gained upward traction ahead of the US FOMC minutes release to close around 0.3% higher at 98.17 on August 18.
US 10-year yields edged higher by 3 bps to 4.32% in the last week as 2-year yields fell by 1 bps to 3.75%, which steepened the yield curve. Ten-year yields were noted at 4.32% at the time of writing.

CFTC:

As per weekly CFTC data, money managers decreased their bullish gold bets by 7,585 net-long positions to 154,226 in the week ending August 12.

Fed Watch:

The Fed’s Bostic said after a 3-day tour of the Southeastern US he found that tariff strains were real and high borrowing costs were squeezing business profits. He is inclined towards reducing rates.

Hong Kong to announce gold trading Hub plan by year-end:

According to Financial Secretary Paul Chan of Hong Kong, the city plans to unveil a plan to develop an international gold trading centre which would include supporting physical delivery as the City’s plans to build a commodity trading system ecosystem progresses ahead.

Data roundup:

NAHB Housing Market Index (August) released on Monday came in at 32 Vs the forecast of 34.

Upcoming data and events:

Investors eye Jackson Hope Symposium to be held from August 21 to August 23. The Fed Chair Powell's speech is at 7:30 PM IST on August 22.
ECB's Ms Lagarde will speak at the Jackson Hole Symposium on August 23.
The US data to be released this week include housing starts (August 19), July 30 FOMC minutes (August 20), S&P Global US PMIs (August 21), leading Index (August 21) and existing home sales (August 21).
China's PBoC is expected to keep its 1-year and 5-year Loan Prime rates unchanged at 3% and 3.5% respectively on August 20.
Eurozone's PMIs will be released on August 21, while Germany's 2Q final GDP will be out on August 22.
Japan will release its PMIs and national CPI on August 21 and August 22 respectively.

Gold ETF:

Notwithstanding a 1.8% weekly decline in gold prices, total known global gold ETF holdings surged to a fresh 2-year high of 92.66 MOz on August 15. Gold ETF holdings are up 11.84% YTD. It is to be noted that ETF holdings reached a record high of 111.25 MOz on October 15, 2020, during Covid days on safe haven demand and fiscal and monetary stimulus measures taken by global central banks and governments.

USDINR:

USDINR fell as Trump held back on his further tariff threats. In addition, proposed changes by the Indian government in the GST structure, as announced on August 15, are also being seen as reducing tariff impact to some extent. The proposed changes will see the number of GST categories reduced from four to two, with most goods that were taxed at 12% and 28% now taxed at the lower rate of 5% and 18%, respectively.

Gold outlook:

In the very short-term, investors’ focus will be primarily on two factors: Geopolitical developments concerning Ukraine and Jackson Hole Symposium. The presence of seven European leaders at the meeting with Trump has lent some additional support to the cause of Ukraine. The proposed trilateral meeting may further alleviate geopolitical tensions to some extent in the very short-term; however, the mechanism of security guarantee and the stances of the major actors Viz Ukraine, Russia and Europe concerning each other remain sticky points. The Russian President Putin has clearly laid down the conditions of a ceasefire that include recognition of Eastern Ukraine’s Donbas regions won by Russia as Russian territories and demilitarization of Ukraine. Ukraine has maintained that it won’t cede its regions. Security guarantees by NATO may further complicate the situation in the region.
Thus, while gold, in ultra short-term, can test the support around $3307 (MCX Gold October Rs 98,600)/$3290 (Rs 98,100) , downside is limited unless we see some significant and long-lasting positive developments in the Ukrainian war. Worsening US and global economies and rate cut expectations would cushion the fall in gold prices. Resistance is at $3350 (Rs 100,000)/$3375 (Rs 100,700).

(Disclaimer: Recommendations and views on the stock market and other asset classes given by experts are their own. These opinions do not represent the views of The Times of India)

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